Conflict and cooperation on natural resources: Justifying the CoCooN programme - Conflicts Over Natural Resources in the Global South - page 21

2.2.7 From scarcity to variability
Research on ecological change and dynamics in more densely populated zones and
semi-arid areas in East and West Africa has seriously challenged the idea of increasing
scarcity (Tiffen et al. 1994; Scoones 1995; Mazzucato and Niemeijer 2000). African
environments display much more variability than commonly assumed. Likewise, pro-
cesses of environmental change are much more complex and varied than usually
portrayed (Fairhead and Leach 1996). This variability has resulted in complex systems
of property and access rights to natural resources. Even in situations of ecological pres-
sure, scarcity is not an unequivocal phenomenon, but varies considerably in time and
space and among households, genders and individuals. Catching this variability and
its differential effects on people's vulnerability in analysis and policy practice is of the
essence. Additionally, various layers of customary, religious and state law interact in
natural resource management, leading to considerable ambiguity on the ground and,
hence, space for compromise and negotiation. Social and political relations between
the parties involved largely determine the outcomes of such localised conflicts. Based
on status, specific groups of people may be denied access to resources or can be increas-
ingly marginalised (De Bruijn and Van Dijk 2003). Answers to these questions must
be sought in local ethnic and political relations, institutional strength, governance
structures, and patterns and processes of group identification (Schlee 2004).
The Cochabamba and El Alto 'water riots' that took place in Bolivia in 2000
and 2005 are cases in point. Neither riot was about the scarcity of water, but instead
about the privatisation of customary water rights (Assies 2003; Boesen and Ravnborg
2004). This gave rise to another kind of water wars thesis, predicting violent protest
against injustice due to unreflective privatisation and globalisation (Shiva 2002). The
same debate is now emerging with regard to the potentially violent outcomes of the
implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, where it is not
climate change or the effects of climate variability that cause major social unrest and
violence, but instead climate change policies that interfere with existing institutions or
undermine existing social arrangements.
2.2.8 Interdependence
The idea that water interdependence may lead to cooperation and benefit sharing
rather than competition and conflict has currently taken hold of debates surrounding
water rights. UNESCO's ongoing From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential
Project 4 reflects this focus on co-operation, while Allan (2001) has argued that inter-
national food trade eases the stress on water-scarce regions such as the Middle East,
as cheap food imports ensure that water stressed countries save water that would
otherwise be depleted in the production of food (virtual water). Still, while the pes-
simists have thus far been proved wrong, the London Water Research Group that has
emerged around Allan warns that there is scant reason for optimism about interna-
tional cooperation. The expectation of 'water peace' is undermined by many examples
of non-implementation of international water treaties, hegemonic power play and
unresolved structural conflict (Zeitoun and Warner 2006). It appears that conflict
4 See: www.unesco.org/water/wwap/pccp/