Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
magnitude and distribution of maximum catch potential of marine fi sheries
(Cheung et al. 2009a).
The variability of the fi sh stocks has major economic consequences
for human societies. The increase of the distant water fl eets during the
last century, has not only reduced the dependence of part of the fi shing
industry on a particular area or species, but has resulted overfi shing of
certain populations which consequently resulted in a higher variability
of the stocks and the economical revenue (Brander 2010). However, the
most vulnerable to the stock variability will be the millions of small-scale
fi sher-folk (fi shers, fi sh processors, traders and ancillary workers) in the
developing world, who depend upon a few local populations (Allison et al.
2009, Brander 2010).
The vulnerability of natural populations has become
a key concept in light of current and projected climate scenarios, and is
defi ned as the susceptibility of species to the disrupted climate-driven
(Dow et al. 2009).
Although most fi sheries are negatively affected by climate change,
it is expected that the landings result benefi ted in certain latitudes. This
information is crucial when planning strategies for adapting and to
effi ciently mitigate the impacts (Brander 2010). For example, the warmer
oceanic conditions are expected to have a positive ecological effect on
Greenland, which has been affected by a cold period since 1960's (IPCC
2007). On the contrary
,
some of the most vulnerable systems will be the
big deltas of rivers in Asia, where millions of people depend on fi shing
activities as well as on the hydrological cycle and land-sea interface use,
which are highly vulnerable to climate-driven changes (Easterling et al.
2007, Brander 2010).
Cheung et al. (2009a) projected the trend of global catch potential
from 2005 to 2055 under biophysical climate change scenarios. The highest
impacts on catch potential will be in the Indo-Pacifi c region, where the catch
potential will decrease by a 50% in the next 10 years. Fish landings will also
decrease in coastal regions as well as in the tropics and the Antarctic zone.
On the other hand, the catch potential in high latitude and offshore regions
of the North Atlantic, the North Pacifi c, the Arctic and the northern edge
of the southern Ocean will increase, as well as the continental margins of
South Africa, southern Argentina and Australia. The melting of sea ice in
the Arctic, will lead to a new habitat that could be colonized by species from
lower latitude, increasing the maximum catch potential in the Exclusive
Economic Zones of the Nordic Countries (Norway, Greenland and Iceland)
by an 18-45%. The catches in Alaska and Russia are also expected to increase
by around 20% (Cheung et al. 2009a).
The prediction of the economic and social impact that will have the
climate change on fi sheries, depends not only on recognizing the places
susceptible to climate warming and its ecosystem-level responses, but also
