Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
60
50
40
30
NRMSE persistence
NRMSE F-NN
20
10
0
-10
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Look-ahead time (h)
Figure 6.23
Improvement of Fuzzy-NN model over persistence for an offshore
wind farm
100
P upper
P measured
P forecast
Plower
80
60
40
20
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Look-ahead time (h)
Figure 6.24
Forecast for offshore wind farm with 85 per cent confidence intervals
6.5.3 Ensemble forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is well developed in medium range NWP where it has been
shown that the ensemble average forecast is more accurate than individual forecasts
after the first few days, but more importantly forecasters are provided with an
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