Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
(AR4 Syn: 1.1 (IPCC
2007c
); IPCC, Working Group II: 15.3, (IPPC
2007b
)).
Certain regions are increasingly subject to severe drought, while others suffer tor-
rential rain leading to catastrophic fl ooding. Equally, sea levels are not rising at the
same rate worldwide. What is inescapable is the observable fact that the number of
extreme weather events is on the increase (IPCC
2012
, 'Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters' (SREX): 8, 13).
Climate modelling works with a range of assumptions and outcomes, rather than
the certainty requested by policymakers. The latter tend to favour outcomes in the
lower ranges, while climate scientists, concerned that the reality may well be much
higher, are routinely accused of scare mongering. The change has been a powerful
tool wielded by those wedded to 'business as usual', to oppose strong measures to
combat climate change - or any measures whatsoever. The need for adaptation and
mitigation is unavoidable. Even so, several climate change specialists hold that the
conclusions of the IPCC reports do not go far enough in alerting the public to poten-
tially disastrous consequences. For instance, Hansen et al. warned as early as
2008
that a fi gure in excess of 350 ppm of CO
2
in the atmosphere, such as the 385 ppm
measured at the time, was already too high. It should be reversed if humanity wanted
to maintain the planet in a state conducive to life. More recent papers by Anderson
and Bows (
2011
) and Hansen et al. (
2013
) convey even starker warnings: '… 2 °C
(3.6 °F) above the pre-industrial level is too high and would subject young people,
future generations and nature to irreparable harm' (Hansen et al.
2013
: 1). The
research team included several experts from other disciplines, such as economics in
addition to climate scientists.
1.2
What Is at Stake
Not only is a liveable world a question of intergenerational justice - of not depriving
our descendants of what we value ourselves, such as a reasonable standard of living,
clean air and attractive surroundings; there is far more at stake.
First of all, there are those who have never been able to enjoy what tends to be
taken for granted in the west, not only access to food, health services and energy but
also an unpolluted environment. Are they not entitled to a decent life, both now and
in the future? Climate change already affects lives in some majority world countries
adversely (United Nations Development Report (UNDP)
2013
: 6). By all accounts,
the most vulnerable, such as the very young and the very old, are those suffering
most from extreme weather events. While the north-south dimension of the threat is
discussed extensively by Edenhofer et al. (
2012
), one should not forget the human
rights of those within affl uent societies, who will fi nd it diffi cult to protect them-
selves from erratic weather because of poverty and rising food prices. There are also
dimensions other than directly observable human well-being. The world is not only
threatened by the effects of climate change but also by other forces, several of which
interact with climate change, for instance, a phenomenon called
acidifi cation
of the
oceans: the natural pH factor has decreased from 8.2 to 8.1 (WGIAR5 SPM: B2).
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