Disparagement of Climate Change Research: A Double Wrong - Ethical Engineering for International Development and Environmental Sustainability - page 167

Southern Asia and China also leads to some further cooling (Ramanathan and Feng
2008 : 14248).
Even so, the last decade has been the warmest decade on record since modern
meteorological measurements began around the year 1850 (WMO 2013a : 3). In fact
each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the earth's surface
than any preceding decade since 1850 (WGIAR5 SPM: B1). This confi rms that it is
'extremely likely that human infl uence has been the dominant cause of the observed
temperature change since the mid-20th century' (Ibid.: B, D.3). The expression
'extremely likely' is used to describe the confi dence level of a conclusion being cor-
rect as lying between 95 and 100% (Ibid, footnote 1; WGIAR4: 23).
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concen-
trations of greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and
SPM.4 in WGIAR5 SPM). Human activities result in emissions of four long-lived GHGs:
CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and halocarbons (a group of gases containing
fl uorine, chlorine or bromine). Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase when emis-
sions are larger than removal processes. … The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and
CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. (IPCC Climate
Change 2007c : Synthesis Report 2.2)
The 2013 IPCC report concludes that this has resulted in higher sea levels as well
as more extreme weather events and will continue to do so (Ibid: D.3; E.6; Figure
SPM.9, Table SPM.1; IPCC: 2012 : 5; AR4 Syn: 3.2.3, 5.2, 6.2, 2007c , see also
WMO 2013a ).
The fi rst measurements of the levels of atmospheric CO 2 were taken in1952 on
Mount Kilauea on Hawaii. We know that the pre-industrial 'carbon' count amounted
to 280 parts per million (ppm), while it surpassed the 400 ppm marker on 9 May
2013. Now, it is quite true that in the distant past, the heat balance has changed due
to natural causes. Then, the temperature rose fi rst, followed by an increase in CO 2 .
According to the 2007a IPCC Assessment Report, the mid-Pliocene, 3.3 to 3.0
Million years ago, was the most recent time in the earth's history with a carbon
count of the current magnitude (Working Group 1, the Physical Science Basis,
WGIAR4: 6.3.2). At the time, the mean global temperatures remained substantially
warmer for a sustained period - estimated by GCMs (general circulation models) at
2-3 °C higher than pre-industrial temperatures. During this period, the area around
the North Pole was much warmer than at present (Brigham-Grette et al. 2013 ). Now,
Arctic temperatures are rising faster than the mid-latitudes and tropics as well.
While the term 'climate change' is to be preferred, changes caused by increasing
CO 2 levels in the atmosphere used to be called 'global warming'. However, this sug-
gests equal distribution of heat around the globe. Nothing could be more mislead-
ing: certain regions warm much more than others, notably, the North Pole, and
somewhat less evident, the South Pole - 'the Arctic region will warm more rapidly
than the global mean' (WGIAR5 SPM: Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8, and Table
SPM.2). The extreme Arctic warming enhances the risk of the escape of the large
reservoir of methane presently preserved in the permafrost of the polar region