Disparagement of Climate Change Research: A Double Wrong - Ethical Engineering for International Development and Environmental Sustainability - page 166

2005 does not imply that climate change has come to a standstill. According to a
recent study, the heat increase is signifi cantly higher than the fi gure of a mere
0.04 °C per decade since 1998, as calculated by the UK Met Offi ce's Hadley Centre.
The fact is that satellite measurements indicate that temperatures in the Arctic have
risen far faster than elsewhere - 'a very rapid temperature change over recent years'
(Cowtan and Way 2013 ). Unfortunately, there are few weather stations or ocean
temperature gauging fl oats close to the North Pole. However, if surface tempera-
tures calculated by extrapolating satellite fi gures are used to model the heat increase
in combination with the few available polar surface data, the pause is no longer so
pronounced.
In addition, the oceans, which cover about 70% of the earth's surface, play a
crucial role. They absorb much of the solar radiation warming the earth, amounting
to some 93% of excess heat energy, during the last 50 years (Chambers 2013 ).
However, large bodies of water, such as the oceans, take a long time to heat up,
while in recent years, more heat energy appears to have penetrated deeper into the
oceans - below 700 m (Balmaseda et al. 2013 : 1755, Table 1: OHC (Ocean Heat
Content, linear Trends)).
Also conditions related to heat anomalies caused by the 'El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)' are characterised by conditions such as the ones dominant in
1997-1998. 'A strong El Niño or La Niña event is capable of bumping global tem-
peratures upwards or downwards for a year or two' (Ibid.: 1756). El Niño, that is
'The Boy' or Christ Child, because the phenomenon tends to manifest itself around
Christmas, is defi ned as 'a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the
Tropical Pacifi c'. Normally, cold water transported by the Peru Current, the eastern
part of the Pacifi c Gyre, fl owing towards the Equator along the Latin American
coast, gives rise to an upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water from the ocean depths.
This occurs at about 5° south, where the current curves westwards defl ected away
from Peru. This westward fl ow is caused by the fact that the Southern Hemisphere
trade winds whip the top ocean layer in a westerly direction, although minor sub-
surface countercurrents tend to appear in late December. These normally last only a
few weeks. However, in an El Niño year, the trade winds abate, while the undercur-
rents, fl owing eastwards towards Peru, turn into oxygen-defi cient streams of some
30 °C. This can last for months, if not years (Madl 2000 ). In consequence, the pro-
ductive fi shing grounds off the Latin American coast are subjected to a nutrition-
poor, hot bath, rushing in from the seas around Indonesia. The heat energy from the
ocean rises up into the atmosphere through cooling evaporation - the top ocean
layer cools, while the air heats up. In 'La Niña' years, the cold westward current is
unusually strong. The expression 'La Niña' (or: 'The Girl') for cool years succeed-
ing the warm ones arose by analogy. Due to the absence of major El Niños in the last
15 years, the earth's surface has warmed up less than in the late twentieth century
(Kosaka and Xie 2013 ).
In addition, the cooling effect of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) aerosols from volcanic
activity has been approximately twice as strong in the years 2008-2011 than
between 1999 and 2002, as there have been more, relatively modest volcanic erup-
tions (WGIAR5 SPM. C). In addition, the SO 2 content of urban air pollution from