Global Energy Use and Supply - Energy and the Environment - page 24

Other 9

Poland 4

South Africa 7

26
United States

Germany 7

25
Former
Soviet Union

Australia 10

China 12

Figure 2.13 World's coal reserves, percent. ( Source: Same as in Figure 2.6.)

resources could supply the present consumption rate for about 1500 years. The resources are mainly
located in China, the former Soviet Union countries, the United States, and Australia. However,
the resources may be located at great depth under the ground or under the continental shelves. The
cost of exploiting these resources will certainly be much greater than that of the reserves.

2.7.2 Petroleum Reserves

The terms petroleum and mineral oil, or oil for short, are synonymous. The crude oil that is found
in various parts of the world differs in quality and composition, depending on the biological origin
and geological history. It is found in geological reservoirs under the ground or under the seabed at
depths up to several thousand meters.
A recent survey of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the world's oil reserves as
1.6 E(12) barrels. 8 , 9 The distribution of the oil reserves among the major oil reservoirs of the world
is as follows (in percent): Middle East (42), North America, including US, Canada and Mexico
(15), Russia, including Siberia (14), North and West Africa (7.2), South and Central America (6.1),
Asia and Pacific (5.5), Caspian Basin (3.5), Western Europe, including the North Sea (3.1), and
others (3.6) (see Figure 2.14).
Taking an average heating value of crude oil as 5.8 E(6) Btu/bbl, the world's oil reserves amount
to 9280 Q. The world's oil consumption in 1995 amounted to about 141 Q/y. If that consumption
rate were to continue into the future, the world's oil reserves would last only for about 65-70 years.
If oil consumption keeps increasing at a rate of 1.1%/y, the lifetime of the world's oil reserves
would be only about 50 years.
In a 1998 Science article, Kerr predicted that the peak production rate of crude oil will occur
sometime between 2005 and 2020. 10 After that, the production rate will decline, which means that
the consumption rate must also decline. This also means that the world's energy appetite must be
supplied by sources other than oil.

8 U.S. Geological Survey, 1997. Ranking of the World's Oil and Gas Reserves . USGS Report 97-463.
9 1 barrel (bbl) = 42 U.S. gallons = 159 liters. See Table A.2.
10 Kerr, R.A., 1998. The Next Oil Crisis Looms Large—and Perhaps Close. Science 281, 1128-1131.