Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
hardly a hotbed of environmentalists pushing ridiculous renewable schemes, so its
WEO
isconsideredkeyreadingbyDirtyEnergyexecutivesandpoliticiansacrossthespectrum
(although I wonder how many members of Congress have ever seen it).
In 2011, separate from the main
World Energy Outlook,
the IEA presented another
study,called
Testing the Limits.
InittheIEAlaidoutwhatIconsideramuchmorelikely
scenario than the business-as-usual content of the
WEO.
It looked at what would happen
if the world were to make a belated but sharper change in its energy policy to get off
fossil fuels by the late 2010s. The report referenced freedom from volatile oil supplies
and other economic drivers as much as climate reasons for making the switch increas-
ingly likely.
In this
Testing the Limits
scenario, the IEA found that solar energy could become
the backbone of a largely renewable worldwide energy system. In this case,
photovoltaics—solar-panel technology, the key ingredient of the Rooftop Revolu-
tion—will provide about 20 percent of the world's electricity generation in the second
half of this century. The report projects 12,000 gigawatts of installed capacity by 2060;
to give you some sense of how dramatic that vision is, currently about 50 gigawatts are
installed. Solar-thermal and solar fuels will meet or exceed the capacity of solar panels
by 2060, as those technologies mature in this forecast.
I know that a model is only a model and that the scenario is unlikely to play out in
exactly the same way, but it's exciting to see a conservative agency projecting such a big
jump in solar resources so soon. And while the model proposes fast growth (faster per-
haps than one would like to even contemplate when running a business in the space), it
reminds me of just how much we've surprised ourselves in the past with real, rather than
projected, outcomes.
The amount of electricity that Germany generated from the sun, for example, jumped
60 percent from 2010 to 2011. The nation's solar-power systems collectively generated
18 billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity during 2011—that's enough to power 5.1
million households. And over the past decade, forecasts similar to the IEA's—like
The
Energy [R]evolution
blueprint (released by Greenpeace in conjunction with specialists
from the German space agency) and
Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization
(pub-
lished by Lester R. Brown, founder of the Worldwatch Institute)—have underestimated
the amount of electricity that the solar industry can provide.
Cost
As for the sticker shock that used to go with solar adoption, these forecasts give us new
information: First, the total price for solar systems has come way down. And, second,
you can now get the solar system financed, which means you “pay as you go.” Financial
