The Dynamics of Scientific Knowledge - Mapping Scientific Frontiers: The Quest for Knowledge Visualization - page 18

and Minuteman missiles, nuclear warheads, C-141 aircraft, and Mark 46 torpedo,
and the M 102 Howitzer. The team of experts identified 686 “research or exploratory
development events” that were essential for the development of the weapons. Only
9 % were regarded as “scientific research” and 0.3 % was base research. 9 %
of research was conducted in universities. One of the preliminary conclusions of
Project Hindsight was that basic research commonly found in universities didn't
seem to matter very much in these highly creative developments. In contrast,
projects with specific objectives appeared to be much more fruitful.
Project Hindsight concluded that projects funded with specific defense purposes
were about one order of magnitude more efficient than projects with the same
amount of finding but without specific defense goals. Project Hindsight further
concluded that:
1. The contributions of university research were minimal.
2. Scientists contributed most effectively when their effort was mission oriented.
3. The lag between initial discovery and final application was shortest when the
scientist worked in areas targeted by his sponsor.
Project Hindsight emphasized mission-oriented research, contract research, and
commission-initiated research. Although these conclusions were drawn from the
study of military weapon development, some of these conclusions found their way
to the evaluation of scientific fields such as biomedical research.
In respond to the findings of Project Hindsight , the National Science Foundation
(NSF) commissioned a study TRACES - Technology in Retrospect and Critical
Events in Science . Project Hindsight looked back 20 years, but TRACES looked
the history of five inventions and their origins dated back as early as 1850s. The
five inventions are the contraception pill, matrix isolation, the video tape recorder,
ferrites, and the electron microscope.
TRACES identified 340 critical research events associated with these inventions
and classified them into three major categories: non-mission research, mission-
oriented research, and development and application. 70 % of the critical events
belonged to non-mission research, i.e. basic research. 20 % were mission oriented,
and 10 % was development and application. Universities were responsible for 70 %
of non-mission and one third of mission oriented research. For most inventions,
75 % of the critical events occurred before the conception of the ultimate inventions.
Critical research events are not evenly distributed over time. Events in the early
stages are separated by longer periods of time than events occurred in later stages.
The video tape recorder, for example, was invented in mid-1950s. It took almost
100 years to complete the first 75 % of all relevant milestones, i.e. the critical
research events, but it took only 10 years for the remaining 25 % of the critical
events to converge rapidly. In particular, the innovation was conceived in the final
5 years.
The invention of the video tape recorder involves six areas: control theory,
magnetic and recording materials, magnetic theory, magnetic recording, electronics,
and frequency modulation (Fig. 1.6 ). The earliest non-mission research event
appeared in magnetic theory. It was Weber's early ferromagnetic theory in 1852.