Water scarcity and abundance, water productivity and their relation to poverty - Water Scarcity, Livelihoods and Food Security - page 35

the Gezira in Sudan (Awulachew et al., 2010; Kirby et al., 2010c). Rainfed
agriculture dominates and is generally of very low productivity. Rural liveli-
hoods depend on a diversity of low-intensity activities that reduce risk. Poverty
is widespread but absolute numbers are low because of low population
densities. Birth and mortality rates are very high. Poverty is associated with
lack of access to resources and vulnerability to hazards of drought, flood,
malaria, and other—often water-borne—diseases.
Transitional economies
Transitional economies are identified by a reduced dependence on agriculture
for GDP growth and a coincident reduction in levels of rural poverty, even
though in some basins, such as the Ganges and Yellow, absolute numbers below
the poverty line remain very large, for example, more than 220 million in the
Ganges (Sharma et al., 2010). In these basins, vast numbers of farmers are
supported by irrigation. In some areas (e.g. the Indian Punjab or Shandong
province in the Yellow River) this is extremely productive and has a clear
impact in reducing rural poverty and on national food security and economic
activity. The Yellow River basin produces 14 percent of China's grain and
about 14 percent of GDP while consuming only about 2 percent of the
nation's water (Ringler et al., 2012). Irrigation has a clear impact on poverty
alleviation, and reduces major sources of vulnerability.
Provision of basic necessities that accompany the development of agricultural
systems reduces mortality, and most transitional economies show a substantial
decline in fertility. As economies develop further, the competition for water
resources for urban and industrial supply intensifies. In the Ganges, Indus,
Karkheh and Yellow rivers, as well as the Nile delta, this is a cause of major
tension, especially if irrigated agriculture is locked into relatively low-value
production of commodities. Rainfed agricultural productivity also increases in
response to demand, but generally value-adding remains low. During this
phase, regulating ecosystem services suffer widespread loss since institutions
aimed at preserving ecosystem resilience are rudimentary or powerless, while
those supporting resource exploitation are very powerful.
By the end of this phase, aquatic ecosystems will be substantially modified,
as seen in the Mekong, Ganges, Niger, São Francisco and Karkheh Basins. In
the Yellow River, capture fisheries have been eliminated. Elsewhere they are
likely to be severely reduced or replaced by aquaculture. Extensive livestock
systems will have been replaced in part by more-intensive production. In
summary, this phase is characterized by a major expansion in productivity but
also widespread reduction in the range of ecosystem services.
The industrial classification
The industrial classification applies to basins in which agriculture contributes
5 percent on average to GDP growth and poverty is mostly urban (World