The Challenge Program on Water and Food: A new paradigm for research in the CGIAR - Water Scarcity, Livelihoods and Food Security - page 10

Theory of change
Initially the CPWF used the CGIAR-wide impact pathways approach, which
itself was a shift from the donor-driven logical framework. As the CPWF
progressed toward the second phase, theory of change (ToC) (Vogel, 2012)
became the dominant conceptual approach. “[T]heory of change represents
people's understanding of how change happens—the pathways, factors and
relationships that bring and sustain change in a particular context” ( James, 2011).
Although ToC was the main conceptual approach, the CPWF used other
frameworks for differing specific purposes, when the alternative approach was
judged more suitable. For example, as discussed above, the poverty and
livelihoods analysis used the sustainable livelihoods framework (Solesbury,
2003; Kemp-Benedict et al . , 2009), while the political economy analysis used
the institutional analysis and development framework (Harris et al., 2011).
In developing ToCs at the project, basin and program level in CPWF's
second phase, the wide diversity of people involved in the range of CPWF
R4D (partner research organizations, local decision-makers, policymakers,
development practitioners, etc.) themselves contributed to defined develop-
ment outcomes. The CPWF model of practice approached R4D through ToC
thinking. It put ToC into practice using a set of tools, such as outcome learning
models, regular reflection meetings and use of “most significant change”
stories, all of which were developed iteratively.
The CPWF's experience demonstrated the value of the ToC approach. ToC
created narratives that were accessible to all participants. These narratives were
established through a combination of collective inclusive reflection, adaptive
management and relating change to specific groups of actors. ToC also recog-
nized that explicitly stated assumptions are often subjective and depend on
people's cultural and socio-economic perspectives.
Every programme is packed with beliefs, assumptions and hypotheses
about how change happens—about the way humans work, or organisa-
tions, or political systems, or eco-systems. [ToC] is about articulating these
many underlying assumptions about how change will happen in a pro-
gramme.
(Rogers, 2008)
Achieving outcomes with information and engagement
The CPWF defined outcomes as changes in practice, in behavior, decisions,
investments or other ways in which people choose to do things differently.
This is not coercing people to do things differently, but engaging with them to
help them obtain information that allows them to make informed choices
because they perceive the change to be to their own advantage. R4D therefore
seeks to contribute to development outcomes that are profitable, equitable,
sustainable and resilient. The CPWF used ToC to describe the process, which
reflects an inclusive, participative and reflective learning process.