Environmental Engineering Reference
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That capacity was exceeded in 2005. This growth was projected to spread by 2010 to other
regions, including New England and the Pacific Northwest. The study concluded that by 2030
the wind will be a leading renewable-energy source, comparable to hydropower.
As shown by the bars in Figure 13-1, three different scenarios were considered. The first
is the “business as usual” scenario which assumes that (1) there are no major changes in the
market prices of conventional fossil fuels, and (2) there is only modest support for improve-
ments in renewable-energy technologies. Next is the “research and development intensifi-
cation” scenario, which also assumes no major changes in the energy market but projects a
more-rapid development of renewable-energy technologies in the near term. The third set
of conditions considered make up the “national premiums” scenario. Here it is assumed that
heightened national awareness of energy issues results in a premium value being placed on
electricity from renewable sources. For example, a
generation credit
of $0.015 per kilowatt-
hour, granted in the
Energy Policy Act
of 1992, might be extended or increased in order to
stimulate the near-term market for renewable energy. These projections have proven to be
quite accurate.
20 Percent Wind-Powered Electricity Generation by 2030
A new DOE study completed in 2008 describes a scenario in which by 2030 20 percent
of U.S. electricity could come from wind plants. This study projects the addition of 241 GW
of land-based and 54 GW of turbines located offshore, based on a
National Renewable Energy
Laboratory
(NREL) model analyzing wind resources, turbine technology trends, manufactur-
ing capacity, plant siting, environmental effects and assumes major expanding transmission
systems to bring wind power to load centers [DOE 20 percent]. Offshore installations on the
east coast and in the Great Lakes could be located near electrical load centers, reducing distribu-
tion line lengths and much of the needed transmission expansion.
A central aspect of the DOE study was development of
supply curves
showing future
wind generation potential as a function of levelized cost. The national supply curve for bus-
bar energy costs—for the wind plant alone, excluding transmission costs—is shown in Figure
13-2. The figure illustrates that more than 8,000 GW of wind energy is available in the United
Figure 13-2. Supply curve for wind energy - current bus-bar energy cost
(in $2007).
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