Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Fig. 2.8 Temperature trends and projections of global average surface temperature
source
: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library (2005), Philippe Rekacewicz,
http://
maps.grida.no/theme/climatechange
systems, the predictive power of models is usually limited. This is especially true for
processes with a pronounced singularity, where local specific events largely influence
the subsequent dynamics in a way that cannot be precisely forecast. However,
probability estimations can often be derived through ecological modelling. To have
an idea about this limitation is a precondition to reasonably applying ecological
modelling.
Models Cannot Function Without a Precise Question
or Hypothesis and an Appropriate Underlying
Theoretical Framework
Although this demand seems to be trivial, it has to be stated that a very detailed task
specification in connection with explicit knowledge about the purpose is a basic
