Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
24.6 Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics: Predictions
About Its Future!
Ecological Modelling will improve and expand. Models will further increase in
their ability to represent the complexity of nature. Model generation, at least for the
repetitive parts of models, will be conducted to a greater extent by employing
artificial intelligence in model development. Iteration processes will be to a larger
extent enabled to iterate iterations, i.e., to proceed to a meta-iteration level. Model-
based adaptive management strategies will further improve. On-site or remote
sensor driven system interfacing will improve, as well. But will this overall
development allow more precise predictions of nature? In some limited fields this
could be the case. But concerning strategic issues, nature will remain the source of
surprise that it always has been. One of the surprises about modelling: Model-based
argumentation can help to explain why this is the case.
Certain small-scale molecular level interactions in non-linear, energy dissipating
systems can give rise to altered behaviour, which is then successively amplified to
macroscopic levels. Looking at the detailed processes, we can well understand
WHY evolutionary processes as a basis of ecological dynamics will proceed in
setting alternating goal functions towards which adaptation then proceeds in con-
tinuously changing directions. We may also understand the HOW of the processes.
Fig. 24.1 Different views of the Zugspitze (Bavarian Alps), highest peak in Germany. The site is
located in the Wetterstein Mts. range in the Northern Limestone Alps
