Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
experimental data settled the issues step by step. Because of this evi-
dence the overwhelming majority of scientists today have little doubt
about the reality of climate change caused by human activity. This does
not mean that uncertainties do not exist, nor does it mean that we do not
need even more innovative studies of the earth's past and its chemistry.
It is diffi cult to touch this topic without referring to the perception by
a portion of the population that climate change occurs more in the minds
of scientists than in the real world. In this respect the focus of scientists
on uncertainties does not help. It is important to note that while scientists
debate about uncertainty, the outcome is not in debate at all. A metaphor
may help. Suppose you are driving your new GPS-enabled and satellite-
uplinked car when, suddenly after the next turn, you are in a very heavy
fog. Suppose further that there are many scientists back at a lab looking
over the data from your GPS, and they engage in a discussion as to when
your car will go over a cliff. Of course, being scientists, they have models
to predict when you will reach this cliff. Not surprisingly, their predictions
all disagree owing to the uncertainty of the GPS system, the time to
uplink data from the car, and so forth. Some argue that you will reach the
cliff in 5 minutes while others argue that it will take you at least one hour
to reach the cliff. What do you do?
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