Energy - Wind Energy: Renewable Energy and the Environment - page 27

Year Consumption Cumulative

0 3.00E 10

1 3.09E 10 3.09E 10

2 3.18E 10 6.27E 10

3 3.28E 10 9.55E 10

… … …

23 5.92E 10 1.00E 12

24 6.10E 10 1.06E 12

25 6.28E 10 1.13E 12

26 6.47E 10 1.19E 12

27 6.66E 10 1.26E 12

So at around 25 years all the conventional oil is gone. In the real world there is not the abrupt
drop-off, as supply cannot meet demand. However, the example reinforces a previous statement:
Exponential growth means large resources do not last very long.

According to the energy companies, the continued growth in energy use in the United States is
to be fueled by our largest fossil fuel resource, coal, and nuclear energy. How long can coal last if
we continue to increase production to offset decline in production of oil and to reduce the need for
importation of oil? The preceding analysis will allow you to make order of magnitude estimates.
Also, increased or even current production rates of fossil fuels may have major environmental
effects, as global warming has become an international political issue.

2.10 SUMMARY
Continued exponential growth is a physical impossibility in a finite (closed) system. Previous calcula-
tions made about the future are just estimations, and possible solutions to our energy dilemma are:

1. Reduce demand of fossil fuels to depletion rate.
2. Use renewable energy at sustainable rate and begin a steady-state society.
3. Redefine the size of the system; colonize the planets and space. The problem is, this will
not solve the energy dilemma on earth. From our present viewpoint, the resources of the
solar system are infinite and our galaxy contains over 100 * 10 9 stars.

Because the earth is finite, there is a limit for population, amount of fresh water, fossil fuels,
and minerals [10], and even a limit on the amount of food production and catch of fish from the
sea. Therefore, a change to a sustainable society, which depends primarily on renewable energy,
becomes imperative within this century. For the world, we will have to do the following in the tran-
sition period (2007-2020) in order of priority:

1. Implement conservation and energy efficiency. Since the first energy crisis, this has been
the most cost-effective mode of operation. It is much cheaper to save a barrel of oil than to
discover new oil or import oil.
2. Increase the use of renewable energy.
3. Reduce dependence on oil and natural gas during the transition period.
4. Use coal (clean, means taking care of the carbon dioxide); however, it has to include all
social costs (externalities).
5. Implement incentives and penalties that are in line with items 1 and 2.

Efficiency can be improved in all major sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation,
and electrical. The most gains can be accomplished in the transportation, residential, and commercial