Agriculture as a Source of GHGs - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 39

2010-2020. Assuming similar rates of increase
(10-15 %) for 2020-2030, agricultural emissions
might be expected to rise to 8,000-8,400, with a
mean of 8,300 MtCO 2 e by 2030. The future evolu-
tion of CO 2 emissions from agriculture is uncer-
tain. Due to stable or declining deforestation rates
(FAO 2003 ), and increased adoption of conserva-
tion tillage practices (FAO 2001 ), these emissions
are likely to decrease or remain at low levels.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, agricul-
tural products are the main source of exports.
Signifi cant changes in land use and management
have occurred, with forest conversion to cropland
and grassland being the most signifi cant, result-
ing in increased GHG emissions from soils (CO 2
and N 2 O). The cattle population has increased
linearly from 176 to 379 Mhead between 1961
and 2004, partly offset by a decrease in the sheep
population from 125 to 80 Mhead. All other live-
stock categories have increased in the order of
30-600 % since 1961. Cropland areas, including
rice and soybean, and the use of N fertilizers have
also shown dramatic increases (FAOSTAT 2006 ).
Another major trend in the region is the increased
adoption of no-till agriculture, particularly in the
Mercosur area (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and
Uruguay). This technology is used on ~30 Mha
every year in the region, although it is unknown
how much of this area is under permanent
no-till.
In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe,
the Caucasus, and Central Asia, agricultural pro-
duction is, at present, about 60-80 % of that in
1990, but is expected to grow by 15-40 % above
2001 levels by 2010, driven by the increasing
wealth of these countries. A 10-14 % increase in
arable land area is forecast for the whole of
Russia due to agricultural expansion. The wide-
spread application of intensive management
technologies could result in a 2- to 2.5-fold rise in
grain and fodder yields, with a consequent reduc-
tion of arable land, but may increase N fertilizer
use. Decreases in fertilizer N use since 1990 have
led to a signifi cant reduction in N 2 O emissions.
But, under favorable economic conditions, the
amount of N fertilizer applied will again increase,
although unlikely to reach pre-1990 levels in the
near future. US-EPA ( 2006b ) projected a 32 %
increase in N 2 O emissions from soils in these two
regions between 2005 and 2020, equivalent to an
average rate of increase of 3.5 MtCO 2 -eq/year.
OECD North America and OECD Pacifi c are
the only developed regions showing a consistent
increase in GHG emissions in the agricultural sec-
tor (18 % and 21 %, respectively, between 1990
and 2020) (Fig. 3.4 ). In both cases, the trend is
largely driven by non-CO 2 emissions from manure

3.3.7 Regional Trends

The Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-
Saharan Africa have the highest projected growth
in emissions, with a combined 95 % increase in
the period 1990 to 2020 (US-EPA 2006a ). Sub-
Saharan Africa is the one world region where per
capita food production is either in decline or
roughly constant at a level that is less than ade-
quate (Scholes and Biggs 2004 ). This trend is
linked to low and declining soil fertility (Sanchez
2002 ) and inadequate fertilizer inputs. Although
slow, the rising wealth of urban populations is
likely to increase demand for livestock products.
This would result in intensifi cation of agriculture
and expansion to still largely unexploited areas,
particularly in South and Central Africa (includ-
ing Angola, Zambia, DRC, Mozambique, and
Tanzania), with a consequent increase in GHG
emissions.
East Asia is projected to show large increases
in GHG emissions from animal sources.
According to FAO (FAOSTAT 2006 ), total pro-
duction of meat and milk in Asian developing
countries increased more than 12 times and 4
times, respectively, from 2004 to 1961. Since the
per capita consumption of meat and milk is still
much lower in these countries than in developed
countries, increasing trends are expected to con-
tinue for a relatively long time. Accordingly,
US-EPA ( 2006b ) forecast increases of 153 % and
86 % in emissions from enteric fermentation and
manure management, respectively, from 1990 to
2020. In South Asia, emissions are increasing
mostly because of expanding use of N fertilizers
and manure to meet demands for food, resulting
from rapid population growth.