Climate Change Mitigation - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 325

Table 13.16 Potential socioeconomic benefi ts associated with conservation agriculture (FAO 2010 )
Socioeconomic benefi ts

Resulting from…

Due to…

Increased food security Long-term yield increase

and output stability

Reduced erosion, higher soil fertility,
improved soil structure, and improved
retention of water, nutrients, and soil moisture.
Enhanced biological pest and disease control

Crop diversifi cation Reduced vulnerability to climatic shocks

Crop rotation and intercropping

Increased net profi tability Long-term yield increase

and output stability

Reduced erosion, higher soil fertility,
improved soil structure, and improved
retention of water, nutrients, and soil moisture
Enhanced biological pest and disease control
Reduced vulnerability to climatic shocks

Reduction of on-farm costs Savings in labor, machinery, and

(in the medium-term) chemical inputs
(herbicides, fertilizer, and pesticides,
depending on the technology adopted)

Technology sustainability Suitability to different farming

systems and agroecological
environments

Appropriate combination of tillage
techniques, equipment, and inputs

Table 13.17 Comparison of conventional and conservation agriculture cropping costs for smallholders at two locations
in Paraguay (FAO 2010 )

Edelira a San Pedro b

Crop/cost item
(US$ 1998)

Conventional
tillage (1)

Conservation
tillage (2)

Ratio
(1/2)

Conventional
tillage (1)

Conservation
tillage (2)

Ratio
(1/2)

Farm area (ha) 15.6 15.6 - 6.8 6.8 -

Labor (person-days) 287 240 1.20 164 163 1.01

Net farm income (US$/year) 2,570 4,272 0.60 1,010 2,229 0.45

Return to labor (US$/day) 8.95 17.80 0.50 6.16 13.67 0.45

a Average of 3 farms that switched from conventional to no-till with green manure crop system
b Average of 2 farms that switched from conventional to no-till with green manure crop system

helpful in the rural areas in Lesotho where migra-
tion and health emergencies have reduced the
labor supply and contributed to the increasing
feminization of the agricultural sector.

climate and non-climate policies, and future
climate change. Consequently, mitigation poten-
tials in the agricultural sector are uncertain, mak-
ing a consensus diffi cult to achieve and hindering
policy making. However, agriculture is a signifi -
cant contributor to GHG emissions. Mitigation is
unlikely to occur without action, and higher emis-
sions are projected in the future if current trends
are left unconstrained. According to current pro-
jections, the global population will reach 9 billion
by 2050, an increase of about 50 % over current
levels (Cohen 2003 ). Because of these increases
and changing consumption patterns, some ana-
lysts estimate that the production of cereals will
need to roughly double in the coming decades

13.6 Future Prospects

and Conclusions

13.6.1 Future Prospects

Trends in GHG emissions in the agricultural sector
depend mainly on the level and rate of socioeco-
nomic development, human population growth
and diet, application of adequate technologies,