Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
The TAR (IPCC 2001 ) noted that Small Island
States share many similarities (e.g., physical size,
proneness to natural disasters and climate
extremes, extreme openness of economies, low
risk-spreading and adaptive capacity) that enhance
their vulnerability and reduce their resilience to
climate variability and change. In spite of differ-
ences in emphasis and sectoral priorities on dif-
ferent islands, three common themes emerge.
• All Small Island States National Communi-
cations emphasize the urgency for adaptation
action and the fi nancial resources to support
such action.
• Freshwater is seen as a critical issue in all
Small Island States, both in terms of water
quality and quantity.
• Many Small Island States, including all of the
Small Island Developing States (SIDS), see
the need for greater integrated watershed plan-
ning and management.
Water is a multi-sectoral resource that links to
all facets of life and livelihood, including secu-
rity. Reliability of water supply is viewed as a
critical problem on many islands at present and
one whose urgency will increase in the future.
There is strong evidence that, under most climate
change scenarios, water resources in small
islands are likely to be seriously compromised
(very high confi dence). Most small islands have a
limited water supply, and water resources in
these islands are especially vulnerable to future
changes and distribution of rainfall. The range of
adaptive measures considered and the priorities
assigned is closely linked to each country's key
socioeconomic sectors, its key environmental
concerns, and areas most at risk of climate change
impacts such as sea-level rise.
Projected impacts of climate change include
extended periods of drought and, on the other
hand, loss of soil fertility and degradation as a
result of increased precipitation, both of which
will negatively impact on agriculture and food
security. In a study on the economic and social
implications of climate change and variability for
selected Pacifi c islands, it was found that, in the
absence of adaptation, a high island such as
Viti Levu, Fiji, could experience damages of
US$23-52 million per year by 2050 (equivalent
to 2-3 % of Fiji's GDP in 2002), while a group of
low islands such as Tarawa, Kiribati, could face
damages of more than US$8-16 million a year
(equivalent to 17-18 % of Kiribati's GDP in 2002)
under SRES A2 and B2. On many Caribbean
islands, reliance on agricultural imports, which
themselves include water used for production in
the countries of origin, constitutes up to 50 % of
food supply.
In a literature assessment, Mimura et al.
( 2007 ) concluded that on small islands, subsis-
tence and commercial agriculture would very
likely be adversely affected by climate change.
This projection was assigned “high confi dence.”
5.8.1
Adaptation, Vulnerability,
and Sustainability
Sustainable development is often stated as an
objective of management strategies for small
islands. Relatively little work has explicitly con-
sidered what sustainable development means for
islands in the context of climate change. It has
long been known that the problems of small scale
and isolation, of specialized economies, and of
the opposing forces of globalization and localiza-
tion may mean that current development in small
islands becomes unsustainable in the long term.
While there has been considerable progress in
regional projections of sea level since the TAR,
such projections have not been fully utilized in
small islands because of the greater uncertainty
attached to their local manifestations, as opposed
to global projections. Reliable and credible
projections based on outputs at fi ner resolution,
together with local data, are needed to inform the
development of reliable climate change scenarios
for small islands. These approaches could lead
to improved vulnerability assessments and the
identifi cation of more appropriate adaptation
options at the scale of islands and across time
scales of climatic impacts.
Vulnerability studies conducted for selected
small islands show that the costs of infrastructure
and settlement protection represent a signifi cant
proportion of GDP, often well beyond the fi nancial
means of most Small Island States, a problem
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