Regional Impacts - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 92

90 % by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most
affected. However, there is the possibility that
adaptation could reduce these negative effects.
A case study of climate change, water avail-
ability, and agriculture in Egypt is provided. Not
all changes in climate and climate variability
would, however, be negative for agriculture. The
growing seasons in certain areas, such as around
the Ethiopian highlands, may lengthen under climate
change. A combination of increased temperatures
and rainfall changes may lead to the extension
of the growing season, for example, in some of
the highland areas. As a result of a reduction in
frost in the highland zones of Mt. Kenya and
Mt. Kilimanjaro, for example, it may be possible
to grow more temperate crops, e.g., apples, pears,
barley, wheat, etc. (Parry et al. 2004 ).
Fisheries are another important source of rev-
enue, employment, and protein. In coastal regions
that have major lagoons or lake systems, changes
in freshwater fl ows, and more intrusion of salt
waters into the lagoons, would affect species that
are the basis of inland fi sheries or aquaculture.
The impact of climate change on livestock in
Africa has been examined. Decreased precipita-
tion of 14 % would be likely to reduce large farm
livestock income by about 9 % (~US$5 billion)
due to a reduction in both the stock numbers and
the net revenue per animal owned.

about 20 % GDP. More than 70 % of the cultivated
area depends on low-effi ciency surface irrigation
systems, which cause high water losses, a decline
in land productivity, water logging, and salinity
problems. Moreover, unsuitable agricultural
practices and improper irrigation management
affect the quality of the country's water resources.
Reductions in irrigation water quality have, in
their turn, harmful effects on irrigated soils
and crops.
Institutional water bodies in Egypt are working
to achieve the following targets by 2017 through
the National Improvement Plan:
• Improving water sanitation coverage for urban
and rural areas
• Wastewater management
• Optimizing the use of water resources by
improving irrigation effi ciency and agriculture
drainage-water reuse
However, with climate change, an array of
serious threats is apparent.
• Sea-level rise could impact on the Nile Delta
and on people living in the delta and other
coastal areas.
• Temperature rises will be likely to reduce the
productivity of major crops and increase their
water requirements, thereby directly decreasing
crop water-use effi ciency.
• There will probably be a general increase in
irrigation demand.

• There will also be a high degree of uncertainty

about the fl ow of the Nile.

5.1.1 Climate, Water Availability,

and Agriculture in Egypt

• Based on SRES scenarios, Egypt will be likely

to experience an increase in water stress,
with a projected decline in precipitation and a
projected population of between 115 and 179
million by 2050. This will increase water
stress in all sectors.

Egypt is one of the African countries that could
be vulnerable to water stress under climate
change. The water used in 2000 was estimated at
about 70 km 3 which is already far in excess of the
available resources. A major challenge is to close
the rapidly increasing gap between the limited
water availability and the escalating demand
for water from various economic sectors. The
rate of water utilization has already reached its
maximum for Egypt, and climate change will
exacerbate this vulnerability.
Agriculture consumes about 85 % of the
annual total water resources and plays a signifi cant
role in the Egyptian national economy, contributing

• Ongoing expansion of irrigated areas will reduce

the capacity of Egypt to cope with future fl uc-
tuations in fl o w .

5.1.2 Adaptation and Vulnerability

Recent studies in Africa highlight the vulnerability
of local groups that depend primarily on natural
resources for their livelihoods, indicating that