Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
far beyond food production. In the short term,
socioeconomic factors such as those linked with
market forces may dominate food security.
However, in terms of the long-term stability and
sustainability of food production and food sup-
ply, environmental factors become crucial.
Although there will be some positive impacts, the
following list illustrates that climate change will
have mostly negative effects on the food security
dimensions:
• Availability of food - will be a drop in food
production caused by extreme events, changes
in the suitability or availability of arable land
and water, and the unavailability or lack of
access to crops, crop varieties, and animal
breeds that can be productive in conditions
which have lead to changes in pests and
diseases
• Access to food - will be worsened by climate
change events that lead to damages in infra-
structure and losses of livelihood assets as
well as loss of income and employment
opportunities
• Stability of food supply - could be infl uenced
by food price fl uctuations and a higher depen-
dency on imports and food aid
• Utilization of food - can be affected indirectly
by food safety hazards associated with pests
and animal diseases as well as the increased
presence of human diseases such as malaria
and diarrhea.
Although climate change impacts on food
security on national and subnational levels
remain highly uncertain, the following IPCC
regional assessments project regional variations
in climate change impact.
of climate change on smallholder and subsistence
farmers, pastoralists, artisanal fi sherfolk, and
forest dwellers including indigenous people are
complex and highly localized. Vulnerability also
varies within communities, dependent on factors
such as land ownership, gender, age, and health.
Globally, the IPCC expects only a marginal
increase in the number of people facing hunger
due to climate change. However, many of the 82
low-income food-defi cit countries have only lim-
ited fi nancial capacity and rely heavily on their
own production. It may not be possible to offset
declines in local supply without increased reli-
ance on food aid.
Global studies must include comprehensive
national assessments of climate change impacts
on agriculture and food security to support
national and subnational decision making. While
existing studies mainly focus on the effect of
downscaled climate change scenarios on major
crops, future studies should look at a wider range
of crops and also take into account food delivery
systems, the greater international connectivity,
food prices, agricultural policy implications, and
possible development pathways. However, in
some regions, such as large parts of Africa,
studies are hampered by highly uncertain trends
in rainfall, the insuffi cient resolution of climate
models, and lack of climate observation data.
In additions, studies should also consider the
increasing competition over land use because of
the demand for agrofuel; the impact of climate
change and CO
2
fertilization on pests, weeds, and
diseases; and the role of land tenure and rights
systems in accessing natural resources.
4.17
Conclusions
4.16.1 Food Insecurity Hotspots
In general, the tropical regions appear to be more
vulnerable to climate change than the temperate
regions for several reasons. On the biophysical
side, temperate C3 crops are likely to be more
responsive to increasing levels of CO
2
. Second,
tropical crops are closer to their high temperature
optima and experience high temperature stress,
despite lower projected amounts of warming.
Third, insects and diseases already much more
Food insecurity vulnerability patterns will be
modifi ed by climate change. Small-scale rainfed
farming systems, pastoralist systems, inland and
coastal fi shing and aquaculture communities, and
forest-based systems are particularly vulnerable
to climate change. Moreover, the urban poor, par-
ticularly in coastal cities and fl ood plain settle-
ments, face increasing risks. Generally, impacts
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