Going Forward - GPS Declassified: From Smart Bombs to Smartphones - page 183

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Going forward
The future of GPS

If you don't know where you're going, you'll probably end up
somewhere else.

David P. Campbell, book title, 1976

As bestselling author Henry Petroski, a professor of engineering and history
at Duke University, notes in Pushing the Limits: New Adventures in Engineering ,
“Predicting the technological future has always been risky business, for the
world of invention and engineering never ceases to push the limits of technol-
ogy to come up with surprises that surprise even the experts.” 1 What follows
is less an exercise in prediction than an exploration of what seems certain,
what appears likely, and what could happen in the future.
In the near term the variable is “when” rather than “if.” The third major
block of satellites, gps iii, should begin launching in 2015. Whereas iif satel-
lites are replacing the older iia satellites (eight active as of June 2013), the gps
iii satellites are slated to replace the somewhat newer iir versions. Even if the
schedule slips, as has so often happened, they will certainly join the constel-
lation within a few years. gps iii offers many technological advances, starting