Where Are We? - GPS Declassified: From Smart Bombs to Smartphones - page 169

economy range from $68 billion to $122 billion annually, representing between
0.5 and 0.9 percent of gross domestic product. 170
Delays and Distortions
Consumers, commercial users, and the military have shared a desire for greater
precision and helped to drive improvements in gps technology. From the golfer
using a range finder to estimate the distance to a green, to the city worker map-
ping fire hydrant coordinates in snow-heavy locales, to search-and-rescue crews
locating a downed pilot, accuracy is key. One reason the Air Force felt com-
pelled to comment publicly in late 2009 on reports about drivers getting lost
using gps was as part of its ongoing pushback against widespread perceptions
that aging satellites were making the system inaccurate. This public relations
problem began in May 2009, when the Government Accountability Office
briefed the House Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs
about problems in the gps iif satellite replenishment program. The iif gen-
eration consists of twelve Boeing-built satellites designed to replace a group
of the original operational satellites, some launched between 1990 and 1993
and now far beyond their expected seven-and-a-half-year life spans. The gao
warned that cost overruns and production delays threatened the Defense
Department's ability to replace the aging satellites quickly enough to maintain
its performance guarantee of twenty-four operational satellites 95 percent of
the time. The iif program was then $870 million over its original $729 million
cost estimate, and the first launch, scheduled for November 2009, was about
three years late. 171 While commending the Air Force for taking steps to avoid
similar problems in the forthcoming gps iii satellite program (which included
switching the prime contractor from Boeing to Lockheed Martin), gao said
there was a “high risk” that the gps constellation would fall below twenty-four
satellites between 2010 and 2014. 172
The hearing itself drew scant media coverage. Major news outlets seemed
more focused on the Obama administration's proposal to defund Loran C, a
long-range, ground-based radio navigation system that some thought gps had
rendered obsolete. 173 Government Computer News posted one of the few sto-
ries to appear the next day under the headline “dod Faces Tough Hurdles in
Maintaining, Upgrading an Aging gps.” 174 As the story spread to other media,
online and overseas, the headlines grew more dramatic. The science and tech-
nology website Gizmodo.com announced, “gps Accuracy Might Be Less Accu-
rate in 2010,” while Engadget.com offered, “gps System Might Begin to Fail