INTRODUCTION: SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF BIOMASS CONVERSION - Biomass as a Sustainable Energy Source for the Future - page 28

1600

1400

1200

High
band

1000

800

600

Upper
mid-band

400

Lower
mid-band
Low band

200

0

620
2020-2030

1 17 22 24 5 3 28 10 8 2 9 7 16 4 25 11 12 21 28 1 9 27 26 11

2050
Forecast year / study

2100

1 -Bauen04 6 -Field08 11 -Hoogwijk05 16 -Lysen08 21 -Smeets07 26 -Yamamoto99

27 -Yamamoto00
27 -Yamamoto01

2 -Beringer11
3 -Cannell02
4 -deVries07
5 -Erb09

7 -Fischer01
8 -Haberl10
9 -Hall93
10 -Johansson93

12 -Hoogwijk03
13 -Hoogwijk04
14 -IEA08
15 -IEA10

17 -Moreira06
18 -OECD/FAO08
19 -Rotiyanskiy07
20 -Sims06

22 -Thrän10
23 -WEA00
24 -WGBU09
25 -Wolf03

Global biomass
potential (EJ)

Essential pre-conditions

1200
1100

￿ Crop yields outpace demand: > 2.5 Gha land for energy crops (includes > 1.3 Gha)
good agricultural land)

High
band

￿ High or very high input farming, limited, and landless, animal production with
dung recovery
￿ Low population (<9 bn)
￿ Vegetarian diet OR extensive deforestation / conversion to managed forestry
￿ All residues a (<100EJ constrained use, not included in all studies)

1000
900 Future

primary
energy
demand
range
Global
primary
energy
supply
(2008)

800
700

￿ Crop yields outpace demand: > 1.5 Gha land for energy crops (includes > 1 Gha)
good agricultural land)
￿ Low population OR vegetarian diet OR extensive deforestation / conversion to
managed forestry

600
500

Upper
-mid

￿ All residues a (<100EJ constrained use, not included in all studies)

￿ Crop yields keep pace with demand: < 0.5 Gha land for energy crops (mostly non-
agricultural)
￿ Low population OR vegetarian diet OR limited deforestation.

400
300

Lower
-mid ￿ All residues a (< 100EJ, constrained use, included in most studies)

200

￿ Little or no land for energy crops (< 0.4 Gha total)
￿ High meat diet OR low input agriculture
￿ Limited expansion of cropland area AND level of environmental protection
￿ Agricultural residues (<30EJ, not included in all studies)
a Agricultural residues, forestry residues, wastes (dung, MSW, industrial)

Global
biomass
supply
(2008)

100

Low

0

FIGURE 1.9 Biomass potential as primary energy source. (Source: Reproduced with
permission from Slade et al. (2011). © Imperial College; the numbers below the top figure
are references that can be found in the report.)