INTRODUCTION: SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF BIOMASS CONVERSION - Biomass as a Sustainable Energy Source for the Future - page 5

demand will rise substantially from the current level with an increasing share from
China and India. This rise of the primary energy demand is projected to be larger than
the population growth, and this will cause a stress on the limited global resources. The
projected GDP even increases stronger, so it is expected that average living standards
increase, which will result in additional strain on the available resources.

1.1.3 Sustainability of Energy Supply

One of the major questions in the world, arising from the general picture sketched in
Section 1.1.2, is how mankind can ensure a global sustainable development for the
(near) future. In this context, sustainability of our energy supply is of paramount
importance. The key issues are discussed in the following text, both from a point
of view of global socioeconomics and ecological sustainability.

1.1.3.1 Socioeconomic Sustainability As one of the most important economic
drivers to secure and improve the living standards of people in the world, energy
supply security is of crucial value for current and future generations. Fossil fuels
run out sooner or later as can be seen in Figure 1.2; they are not renewable on an
acceptable time scale.
This figure depicts the so-called R/P ratios for different sources. The R/P ratio is the
ratio of the current proven reserves to production level. The unit is years and it is a
measure of the expected time a certain fuel source is expected to be available.
On a global scale, it appears that oil and natural gas reserves will be available

—

given the figures of 2012 for an expected approximately 55 years, and coal substan-

tially longer (>100 years). Of course, new contributions to the reserves may be

—

250

200

Coal

150

100

Natural gas

50

Oil

0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

FIGURE 1.2 Overview of world (top) and regional (bottom) reserves-to-production (R/P)
ratios for oil, natural gas, and coal, respectively (end 2012 status). Figures are based on data
from BP (2013).