Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
and sometimes surprising, consequences. Relationships are important between levels
of a system as well as between parts of the whole. It is therefore possible to view
societal, group or organizational culture as each exhibiting emergent characteristics.
Such an emergent culture is difficult to measure, operationalize or restrict to lower
levels, since no emergent phenomenon can easily be linked in a simple manner to
any one specific cause. Culture - that is, the way people make sense of their reality
through their thoughts, actions, objects and values - may be conceptualized as
emergent patterns occurring at multiple levels and environments affecting every
individual person through their learning, experience, and social and other interactions.
Industrial systems too may be likened to biological ecosystems, although as Graedel
(1996) notes in his discussion of industrial ecology, the analogy is not exact, although
it is to ecology that advocates of closed-loop production systems look for inspiration
and guidance.
The planet's ecology is very complex and will accommodate a significant amount
of stress, but there are limits and thresholds. The very complexity of the global
ecology often makes human knowledge and understanding of it partial and scientific
certainty improbable. Disputes over scientific findings frequently arise, and consensus
occurs only after protracted debate and discussion, as the climate change issue bears
witness. As Clayton and Radcliffe (1996: 34-5) write:
It is clear that human actions are causing changes to ecosystems and other systems
in the biosphere, the troposphere and the stratosphere. Some of these changes
are relatively large, and some are occurring at rates that make adaptive and
evolutionary response very difficult. It is possible that no combination of changes
of this magnitude has occurred since the major extinction boundaries. If the
levels of environmental impact, including the reduction in genetic diversity,
continue at current rates, the likelihood of regional and possibly even global
ecological instability must tend to increase.
Analysts frequently talk in terms of probabilities rather than certainties. With
every predicted outcome there will be a margin of error that makes the calculation
of risk both exceptionally important and quite difficult. This raises many challenges
for policymakers, scientists, businesses, communities, peoples and nations. What are
the risks associated with global warming? What are the costs and benefits? What
policy options are available? Is it possible, indeed ethical, to place monetary value
on such risks, particularly when lives and livelihoods are at stake? What will be the
consequences and the risks involved in continuing a given pattern of behaviour -
for example, the burning of fossil fuels? Ordinary people's perceptions of risk may
be at variance with the technical assessments of experts, and indeed may be
disproportionate. Fear and perception of a risk, as with crime, is often higher than
its recorded incidence. When children are exposed to risk, adults feel particularly
anxious, so citizens and politicians demand clear and direct answers, actions and
solutions. However, life and science are not like that, and sometimes politicians
prefer to ignore scientific evidence or political scenarios that may be electorally
unpopular or which constitute, as Al Gore stated in his 2006 documentary,
An
Inconvenient Truth
. Additionally, it should be remembered, as Carnap (1966),
Durham (1992) and particularly Cairns (2003) have argued, that even in the 'hardest'
sciences, like physics, frequently noted for their rigour and precision, uncertainty
