Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
to ecosystem problems, but also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality
and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and education.
2
Order from strength
: A regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with
security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little
attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.
Economic growth rates are low while population growth is high.
3
Adapting mosaic
: Regional watershed-scale ecosystems are the focus of political
and economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem
management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive
approach to the management of ecosystems. Economic growth rates are relatively
low initially but increase with time. Population growth is relatively high.
4
TechnoGarden
: A globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally
sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver
ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of
ecosystems to avoid problems. Economic growth is relatively high and accelerates,
while population in 2050 is in the mid-range of the scenarios.
All four scenarios have a clear managerial and technicist orientation and none
offer a truly radical alternative. Having said this, a number of important observations
have been made:
•
Past actions to slow or reverse the degradation of ecosystems have yielded
significant benefits, but these improvements have generally not kept pace with
growing pressures and demands.
•
Substitutes can be developed for some but not all ecosystem services - for example,
plastics and vinyl for wood - but the cost of substitutes is generally high, and
substitutes may also have other negative environmental consequences - for
example, pollution or increased economic costs.
•
Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without actions that address the
negative effects or enhance the positive effects of one or more of five indirect
drivers of change: population change (including growth and migration), change
in economic activity (including economic growth, disparities in wealth and
trade patterns), socio-political factors (including factors ranging from the presence
of conflict to public participation in decision-making), cultural factors and
technological change leading to greater eco-efficiency.
•
Any effective set of responses ensuring that the sustainable management of
ecosystems must also overcome a number of barriers related to:
-
inappropriate institutional and governance arrangements, such as corruption
and weak systems of regulation and accountability;
-
market failures and the misalignment of economic incentives, which can in
part be rectified by eliminating subsidies that promote excessive use of
ecosystem services, the levying of green taxes, payment for conservation
services and so on;
-
social and behavioural factors that can be rectified in part through consumer
education, empowerment and awareness campaigns to reduce aggregate
consumption;
