Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
even a small rupture can potentially extend its length,
and there are 10
5
times more M
W
2 events than M
W
7
tremors, predictions of which small events become major
tremors are impossible. Such chaotic events can be pre-
dicted only in a statistical sense (Kanamori, Hauksson,
and Heaton 1997). But in California, progress has been
made with seismic hazard models that forecast probabil-
ities of strong shaking within the next 24 h (Gersten-
berger et al. 2005).
