“THE BARBARIANS ARE AT THE DOOR” - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 29

without the shale gas boom, and about whether gas distribution com-
panies and electric power producers pass on natural gas cost savings to
consumers. Crude estimates, though, suggest that Americans may be
saving between twenty and forty billion dollars a year on natural gas. 20
When they spend those savings, the economic impact is multiplied,
perhaps totaling north of i t y billion dollars every year.
All the contributions from natural gas could collectively add up to
hundreds of billions of dollars annually without much of a stretch.
h ose are big numbers, but, topping out at a percentage point or two
of the U.S. economy, they're not revolutionary. People who claim that
natural gas will spark a broad-based U.S. economic renaissance, if only
pesky environmentalists and other concerned citizens lay of , are exag-
gerating the benei ts of the shale gas bonanza. But one needn't exag-
gerate on this front to conclude that shale gas is a big deal. Indeed, the
potential consequences go well beyond economics.

m m m

On January 1, 2009, revelers in Europe woke up to a rude surprise. For
weeks, Russia and Ukraine had been locked in an esoteric i ght over
the price of natural gas. Most of the world lacks true markets for the
fuel, which makes negotiations over contracts to buy and sell natural
gas an inevitably complicated process. In the case of Russian sales to
Ukraine, the discussions also took on an intense political cast: the for-
mer Soviet satellite had long enjoyed cut-rate prices from Moscow and
good relations with its former imperial master. Both, though, appeared
to be a thing of the past. With negotiations going nowhere, Russia
decided it was time to use a trump card. It cut of Ukraine's supplies
of natural gas. 21
Within days the crisis spread to Europe. Much of the continent
depended on Russia for its gas, and a substantial portion could be
delivered only through pipelines that crossed Ukraine. Soon Bulgaria,
Hungary, Poland, and Romania were reporting shortfalls in their
gas supplies; Greece, Italy, Macedonia, and Turkey would follow. 22
On January 7, Russia ordered a halt to all European gas that l owed
through Ukraine. As gas supplies ebbed, an Arctic front swept the