THE ENERGY OPPORTUNITY - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 201

(At its worst, it is as dei cient as any other part of government can be.)
h e investments the Pentagon makes today will be deployed decades
from now in a security environment that might look very dif erent.
Good planners don't ignore that; instead, they embrace it. h ey work
from a range of contingencies, determining what kind of investments
will maximize U.S. advantage and minimize risk. h e U.S. government,
for example, develops forces that would be needed in a confrontation
with China while developing military-to-military ties to reduce the
odds of the confrontation arising. It rarely procures a single type of
aircrat for a particular task, instead ensuring that multiple platforms
are developed, which reduces the risk of single failures having intoler-
able consequences. Politicians ot en tag such ef orts as waste—at er all,
do we really need two kinds of advanced i ghter jets?—but the logic
of uncertainty and risk management ot en makes it sensible to pursue
them.
Strategists who are helping shape the U.S. energy portfolio should
also manage risk by pursuing two types of policies. Some should be
designed to weed dangerous investments out of the U.S. portfolio,
whether by penalizing or regulating greenhouse gas emissions and
excessive oil consumption or by shaping strong environmental rules
for energy development of all kinds. Others should be aimed at helping
to diversify the U.S. energy portfolio, whether by creating conditions in
which benei cial oil and gas development can thrive or by supporting
innovation in cleaner and more ei cient technologies in order to help
them become more at ractive options.
Focus on Big Wins
Leaders presented with specii c proposals for energy-related policies that
pursue these two goals should ask two simple questions: Could this lead
to big gains for the economy, security, or the environment? And can it be
pursued without doing substantial damage on any of those three fronts?
h ey should focus their ef orts on those instances where the answers are
both yes. h is will allow them to pursue necessary intervention without
meddling excessively in the economy. It will also help them navigate com-
peting goals.