Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
consequences far worse than what would have occurred had geoengi-
neering not been pursued in the i rst place. 30 All of this makes slicing
emissions almost as valuable even if geoengineering is pursued.
Moreover, no one knows precisely what the climate dangers out
there are. h ere is a genuine chance that ef orts to cut emissions will
be too late to make a decisive dif erence, but there is also ample pos-
sibility that they will be enough. h e point of boosting clean energy,
among other things, is to reduce the risks of climate change. h ere is
nothing about the possibility of extreme climate sensitivity that changes
the risk calculation.
h e prospect of surprisingly high climate sensitivity does, however,
add marginally to the downside of boosting fossil-fuel emissions. Yet
natural gas, for the time being, is lowering emissions because it's dis-
placing coal. Rising U.S. oil production, meanwhile, will be of set sub-
stantially by lower oil production elsewhere, and it remains relatively
small in the context of global emissions.
T he big wild cards facing the future of U.S. energy—peak oil, major
war, deglobalization, a stalled economic recovery, and surprisingly
high climate sensitivity—all have something in common: they largely
reinforce the benei ts of the changes currently sweeping the American
energy scene. h ere are modest exceptions, like somewhat greater cli-
mate risks from new oil production if climate sensitivity turns out to
be surprisingly large, and bigger economic risks from some new envi-
ronmental rules meant to foster ei ciency and alternatives if economic
growth continues to falter. But the broader lesson remains: there are big
opportunities to be gained from both of the American energy revolu-
tions that are under way.
 
 
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