WILD CARDS - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 192

automobile manufacturers hire new workers to meet the new demand.
But if new regulations aimed at spurring fuel economy raise car prices
so much that they deter purchases entirely, it's bad news for an econ-
omy running well short of full steam. Without as much demand for new
cars, the auto industry would be forced to cut back. In a weak economy,
laid-of employees would have a hard time i nding other jobs.
h e bot om line is straightforward in principle, though dii cult to
pin down in practice. Expanded oil and gas production is even bet er
economic news in a weak economy than in a strong one. Whether or
not a particular development in clean or ei cient energy becomes bet er
or worse in a persistently weak economy depends on the forces driving
the development.

m m m

In May 2010, a group of scientists and policymakers gathered in
Monterey, California, to discuss a sensitive question. 25 h ey were wor-
ried about risks that lay well beyond immediate U.S. economic con-
cerns. Climatologists had been watching nervously as signs mounted
that the earth might be more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than
some previously believed. Melting ice in the Arctic might be sparking
feedback loops leading to greater warming; so might thawing perma-
frost in the far north. h e group came together to discuss emergency
measures that might be taken if climate change soon got out of hand.
Unfortunately it is possible the world will i nd out that it's in for
far more climate change than most models anticipate. h is sort of sur-
prise could shake the world just as much as peak oil or a major power
conl ict could.
h e prospect that climate change could turn out to be far worse
than anticipated seems to strengthen the case for new energy tech-
nologies. If the planet is a lot more sensitive to emissions than most
estimates suggest, then the value of cut ing those emissions goes up.
Yet some contend that if warnings of impending catastrophe are real,
the world is in deep trouble regardless of what it does. In this case,
they argue, there may be lit le reason to emphasize emissions cuts in
the i rst place. 26