WILD CARDS - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 189

ire along the way. 19 Meanwhile, with North America coming progres-
sively closer to a state where it produces as much oil as it consumes, an
alternative to global energy-market integration is becoming plausible.
h ere is no fundamental reason to assume that integration is forever,
particularly when it comes to markets in oil.
h at said, it tends to take a lot to knock an established system out of
place. In the wake of the 1970s oil crises, it would have been sensible for
many oil consumers to move to a market-based system for distributing
supplies. Yet the shit didn't truly happen until the mid-1980s, when a
massive glut of oil gave producers no choice but to turn to open mar-
kets. In turn, the rapid growth of a spot market, in which oil can be
bought and sold without long-term contracts, is a central part of what
has made true global market integration possible. It might take a simi-
larly pivotal event to shit the global energy system back to a more rigid
state. But this is not an impossible eventuality: intense international
conl ict, or an extended period of extremely volatile oil prices, could
drive governments to raise “temporary” barriers to the integration of
global markets. h ose barriers, though, might persist well at er their
motivating events subside.
How would a more fractured global trading system af ect the con-
sequences of the two energy revolutions under way in America?
Self-sui ciency would become much more valuable in a world where
the global trading system is far more rigid. Unable to rely as readily
on global markets to source energy supplies, having U.S. oil to turn
to would become more important. h is would boost the value of U.S.
fossil-fuel production, increase the benei ts of curbing U.S. energy con-
sumption, and raise the payof s from developing electric vehicles and
biofuels.
Like the prospect of armed conl ict, the possibility of globalization
starting to run in reverse also increases the value of keeping some oil
in the ground, in case it becomes more important to have domestic
resources in the future. h is suggests it would be wise to pair ef orts
to boost U.S. production with steps to curb U.S. demand, because
lower demand would make physical self-sui ciency easier to achieve
down the road despite depleted resources. h at oil might be worth
more in the future also suggests it would be unwise to slash the lease