WILD CARDS - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 182

would imply that big U.S. resources of both oil and gas are even more
economically valuable than they otherwise would be. h e same would
be true for technologies that cut U.S. consumption of crude: scarce
oil would mean higher prices and thus greater benei ts from using
less fuel.
h ere are two reasonable objections to this conclusion. If we're going
to start running out of oil soon, wouldn't it be best for Americans to
feel the full brunt of rising prices now, rather than let ing those prices
be tempered for a while by higher U.S. oil production? Higher prices
now would ultimately protect the economy by creating incentives for
Americans to start buying more ei cient cars and developing alterna-
tive fuels right away. Yet the logic in this i rst objection in turn has
two big l aws. h e i rst is the belief that drastically higher prices would
spur the investments in ei ciency and alternatives that the country
needs. If peak oil advocates are right, rapidly rising prices will throw
the economy into a tailspin. People won't buy more ei cient cars and
invest more in alternatives; instead, they will hunker down and wait
until they have more money. h e second problem is that other strate-
gies can help the country become more resilient at far less cost. High
prices have already created strong incentives for energy ei ciency and
renewable fuels. Government support for development of even bet er
alternatives, and regulations that push higher fuel economy, will be far
less painful (and probably cheaper) than let ing the economy suf er
through ever more expensive crude.
h e second objection to the idea that peak oil would make U.S. oil
production more valuable comes from people who are convinced that
peak oil will at least do away with a big part of the climate problem.
In this case, abundant U.S. supplies would undermine an important
path to planetary salvation. But this misunderstands the nature of the
climate challenge. Scarce oil will do nothing to stop the world from
burning enough coal to cook itself many times over. Indeed, dwindling
crude supplies might well prompt the United States and others to start
converting their coal reserves into liquid fuels for their cars and trucks,
leading to higher, not lower, emissions. h e consequences of abundant
U.S. oil supplies for the climate won't change much if it turns out that
the Middle East is running out of oil.