“WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN” - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 150

it would l at en of . h is was not the behavior of a power source that
has become cheaper than fossil fuels. h e International Energy Agency
is considerably more enthusiastic, anticipating a near tripling in wind
capacity and a tenfold increase in solar from its 2012 level to twenty-i ve
gigawat s by the end of the decade. 29 But this assumes that government
tax credits for renewable energy and other policies in place in 2011 will
be extended through the full decade—hardly a given. 30 Even then, it
would still leave those fuels in the minority, with renewables other than
hydroelectricity delivering a scant 4 percent of U.S. power. 31
Indeed, despite the real prospects of strong gains, there is good rea-
son to be skeptical of the most aggressive claims about the likely growth
of wind and solar power in the near future. Start with cost projections.
Analysts at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory calculated that
the average cost of delivering a megawat -hour of electricity using wind
power fell from $150 in 1992 to barely more than $50 in some installa-
tions by 2005. 32 Costs then started to edge upward as supply chains got
jammed (there were only so many facilities capable of turning out the
components required) and the price of essential building blocks such as
cement and steel rose on the back of global demand. By 2012, though,
prices were again touching record lows, buoyed by technological gains
and by a global economic slowdown that dropped the price of steel and
cement. 33 Wind power might continue to see prices fall at the same pace
as in the past; however, it might not, because onshore wind power is
widely agreed to be relatively mature. In particular, wind is i ghting an
uphill bat le in much of the United States, since many of the windiest
sites (or at least the ones that don't require expensive new systems of
power lines) are already occupied. Improving technology has to i ght a
constant bat le against weaker wind.
Solar has more room to improve. h ere's more opportunity for inno-
vation, including advances that leverage progress in the broader semi-
conductor industry. And sunny land isn't nearly as scarce. h e problem
is that solar is starting from a tougher place than some backers admit.
Part of the price crash in 2012 was due to a l ood of modules coming
from government-subsidized Chinese manufacturers; it's far from clear,
though, that those subsidies will continue. Moreover, at least half of the
cost of solar power typically comes from components other than the