THE CAR OF THE FUTURE - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 125

analysts estimate it would take drivers an average of four years to make
up for the extra money they spend by saving money on fuel, and in the
long run they'd save twice what they spend. 60 h e conclusion is sensi-
tive, though, to assumptions about future fuel prices and to exactly how
much the new vehicles turn out to cost.

m m m

When terrorists struck on September 11, 2001, when Hurricane Katrina
hit New Orleans in 2005, and when the U.S. economy cratered in 2008,
many people's thoughts turned to oil. But they weren't debating the i ner
details of fuel economy regulations; they were focused on the broader
vulnerabilities the United States suf ers because of its dependence on
crude. h eir instinct was correct: cut ing oil consumption, whether
through more ei cient cars and trucks or through alternative fuels, has
the potential to deliver economic, security, and environmental benei ts
that extend well beyond the money consumers save at the pump.
Start with the economic and security benei ts, which are intimately
linked. In Chapter 3, I argued that importing less crude by producing
more oil at home could help shield the U.S. economy from the vaga-
ries of expensive and volatile oil prices. h is has direct economic value
but is also important for national security, because the risks of high
and volatile oil prices ot en prompt the United States to take military
action abroad, force it to be restrained when it would otherwise take
action, and more generally alter its foreign and defense policies. I also
concluded, though, that the benei ts are considerably smaller than many
instinctively assume. In particular, even if the United States were to
produce all the oil it consumed, it would still be vulnerable to volatile
prices and would be pinned in when considering action abroad.
Reducing imports by cut ing oil consumption is dif erent. Take the
issue to its extreme: if the United States consumed no oil, it would suf-
fer no direct economic consequences from rising oil prices; moreover,
it would not need to worry much about the oil market consequences of
its actions abroad. (It would still be concerned about what happened
to oil-dependent allies.) No one is talking about get ing the United
States of of oil anytime soon, but millions of barrels a day in reduced