Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
History provides more than one cautionary tale. h is is not the i rst
time that U.S. oil consumption has declined. It i rst occurred between
1973 and 1975, then between 1978 and 1982, and i nally between 1989
and 1991. Each episode featured high oil prices and subsequent reces-
sion. h e i rst two coincided with the two Middle Eastern oil crises that
shook the 1970s; the third came in the wake of the i rst Gulf War. In
every case, U.S. oil consumption eventually resumed its rise.
h is time around, though, the odds are higher that the trend will
stick. h e i rst factor that drove lower consumption in the 1970s was
high oil prices, and ultimately they came down to earth. h ere's a
strong case to be made, though, that oil prices will stay high this
time. Nonetheless, there are also wild cards, including greater U.S.
crude production, that could change things. h e second big factor
shaping the 1970s was policy. In the wake of the oil embargoes, the
United States adopted its i rst fuel economy standards for cars and
light trucks. h ey grew progressively tighter, until fuel prices fell in
the mid-1980s and the U.S. government promptly relaxed them. 13 h e
current trend in U.S. fuel economy is also driven in part by regulations
that have been sustained for several years. Yet a policy reversal on
that front is possible—and could help swing the overall trend toward
lower oil consumption. h e possibility that oil use could start head-
ing back up is compounded by the prospect that future policymak-
ers might decide to abandon mandates that encourage people to use
biofuels instead of oil.
How far could oil use fall? Analysts at the U.S. Energy Information
Administration estimate that high oil prices and existing fuel econ-
omy rules that were in place as of early 2012 will drive U.S. oil con-
sumption from just shy of i t een million barrels a day today down to
thirteen or fourteen million barrels by 2020. 14 h e same team has also
modeled the consequences of new fuel economy regulations that were
put in place later in 2012. h ose standards don't take ef ect until at er
2017, which means they won't do much to oil consumption during
the current decade, but by 2030 they could shave another million bar-
rels a day of demand, for a total reduction of three million barrels a
day. (h e same analysts estimate that achieving the similar reductions
without the new fuel economy rules would require oil to cost nearly
 
 
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