“GAME OVER” - The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future - page 100

late 2011, intrigued by the question, I decided to investigate. I con-
jured up a big set of paths that energy production could take and then
simulated their climate consequences by using a simple climate model.
It turned out that to stick to something like 450 ppm, the world will
need to start phasing out conventional combustion of natural gas by
around 2030. 35 (We'll look at alternative approaches to using natural
gas that might prevent most of their carbon dioxide emissions from
accumulating in the atmosphere in Chapter 6.) Indeed, models of what
would happen if the United States imposed stringent climate policies
consistently predict that traditional natural gas use would i rst rise for a
couple decades and then fall. If the world is going to stabilize at around
550 ppm instead, natural gas could stick around for a two decades or
so longer.
h e upshot is straightforward. For the next couple of decades, gas is
a great way to push out coal, particularly if low-cost renewable energy
doesn't emerge as an ef ective alternative way to do that. Gas plants
also happen to be a lot cheaper than coal plants, which makes it easier
to ultimately replace them with other plants that don't emit green-
house gases. 36 h is makes natural gas good news for climate change.
(Regardless of its impact on climate change, as natural gas drives out
coal it also slashes local air pollution, providing immediate health ben-
ei ts to those who would otherwise be exposed.) Beyond that, if there
isn't a transition to zero-carbon fuels, odds are a goal of 450 will be in
the rearview mirror. Natural gas would still mat er: it could be the dif-
ference between stopping at moderate greenhouse gas concentrations
like 500 or 550 or blowing way past them if zero-carbon sources don't
become viable. Ultimately, though, it can't deliver on the most ambi-
tious goals alone.
h ere is one big caveat to all this: it is possible to square natural
gas with low long-term greenhouse gas emissions if the carbon dioxide
that it produces is captured and sequestered underground. Most people
who know about this idea, known as carbon capture and sequestration
(CCS), have heard it pitched as an expensive way to clean up coal. If
natural gas turns out to be as abundant as many believe, though, clean-
ing up its emissions might turn out to be a bet er i t for CCS. In this
case, the United States could continue to expand natural gas indei nitely