Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
energy production would have had to nearly triple in a very short period
of time.
h is logic, though, only gets you so far when it comes to des-
ignating natural gas the climate savior absent policy intervention.
Many coal plants will keep running even with relatively cheap natu-
ral gas; low-priced natural gas will also encourage the expansion of
gas-consuming industries, generally a good thing for the economy but
bad for emissions. (Cheap natural gas could also make it dii cult to
get zero-carbon nuclear power plants relicensed when they reach the
end of their intended lives. 33 ) Worse for climate change, if a backlash
against shale gas sent natural gas prices heading back toward ten dol-
lars for a thousand cubic feet, construction of new coal plants could
start once again. (To those who worry that boosting natural gas use
could “lock in” the fuel for decades, this should be a persuasive coun-
terpoint; the alternative is further entrenchment of even more carbon-
and capital-intensive coal.) More fundamentally, keeping global carbon
dioxide concentrations below 450 ppm could require reductions in U.S.
emissions on the order of 80 percent by 2050. Even a goal of 550 would
require steep curbs, and eventually emissions that decline to close to
zero. Neither of these goals is consistent with a simple shit from tradi-
tional burning of coal to conventional use of natural gas. Imagine that
you replaced all the coal that's used in the United States with natural
gas. Emissions from the U.S. use of natural gas would then total slightly
more than two gigatons a year of carbon dioxide. h is alone would still
be 40 percent of current U.S. emissions, and we haven't even added in
the pollution from burning oil-based fuels in cars and trucks. h ere is
simply no way, absent big technological shit s, to square indei nite use
of massive amounts of natural gas with the kinds of climate goals that
many have sensibly proposed.
h e basic truth about natural gas as part of a serious climate strategy
is simple: conventional use of gas needs to be an element a genuine
bridge between coal and zero carbon fuels, and that bridge must even-
tually end. It is well-established science that, in order to stabilize green-
house gas concentrations, carbon dioxide emissions ultimately need to
fall close to zero. 34 (You can't stop the bathtub from overl owing unless
you turn of the tap.) h
e only question is when this must happen. In
 
 
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