Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
anthropogenic
greenhouse effect
natural
effects
cooling
effects
3.5
water vapour
3
laughing gas (N
2
O)
near-ground ozone (O
3
)
2.5
CFC, HFC and halons
2
methane CH
4
1.5
carbon dioxide CO
2
1
increased
solar activity
0.5
0
aerosols
(dust, smoke)
and cloud formation
-0.5
-1
change in land use
ozone hole
-1.5
Figure 2.9
Causes of global warming.
Data: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2007), www.ipcc.ch.
2.3 Outlook and Recommendations -
What Lies Ahead?
No one can predict how many greenhouse gases will be emitted in the future.
Climate models can, however, indicate the effects of different emission levels. For
this purpose climate researchers have designed different models that describe the
effects of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. On the basis of these models,
they developed complex computer programmes. To check a computer model, one
fi rst tries to reconstruct the changes of the past. So far this has been a successful
approach and future projections have achieved a high quality.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes reports
on climate change and studies the effects of climate. The environmental programme
of the United Nations (UNEP) and the World Organization for Meteorology (WMO)
initiated the IPCC in 1988. The most competent climate researchers in the world
are involved in the preparation of the IPCC reports and, as a result, this group has
a good reputation internationally.
■
www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
■
www.unfccc.de United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
It is virtually impossible to predict parameters such as population growth or the
point when climate protection measures will be implemented. Therefore, the
