RES Scenario in the European Union - The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe - page 58

it is almost reached at community level the objective relating to the consumption of
RES. In fact, in 2011, the energy produced from RES came to 13 %, a figure above
11, 7 % expected for 2011-2012 (Table 2.12 ).
With reference to electricity, according to the National Renewable Energy Na-
tional Plans defined by the Directive 2009/28/EC, about a third of the electricity
consumption in the EU will come from renewable sources by 2020. In particular,
wind energy will be 14.1 % of the electricity consumptions in 2020, hydropower
10.5 %, biomass 6.5 %, PV 2.35 %, concentrated solar power 0.5 %, geothermal en-
ergy 0.3 % and ocean energy 0.15 % (European Renewable Energy Council 2011 )
(Fig. 2.1 ).
2.4 Conclusions
The analysis carried out in this chapter confirms that the production of energy from
RES is a consolidated reality in the EU, able to meet 14 % of EU energy demand
in 2013.
It is provided the state of the development of RES in EU member states in terms
of installed capacity and energy produced by each technology.
The study shows that the role of RES is expected to strengthen in the coming
years if governments decide to increase their efforts against climate change. In fact,
if we consider the scenario of the IEA ( 2014a ), which provides for the implementa-
tion of the announced policies and the pursuit of international commitments, i.e.,
new policy scenario, or what they assumed new policies to curb polluting emissions
to try to limit the temperature increase to 2 °C, that is the 450 scenario, the share of
RES on global demand could grow by as early as 2040 up to 19 and 30 %, respec-
tively. China will drive the change, more than tripling the production of electricity
from RES and becoming a leader in the world in 2040, in the new policies scenario,
followed by the USA and EU countries as a whole rather than to double its produc-
tion.
It should be noted, however, that the EU with this additional effort compared to
what has been done so far could reach the remarkable share of 47 % of electricity
produced from RES, paving the way for a radical change in their energy model with
consequences both in terms of infrastructure needs and management of the energy
system, both in terms of broader social organization, production, and consumption
to be explored. By the way, all these efforts are made by the EU which accounts for
11% of global CO 2 emissions in 2012, which is low compared with other countries
such as China (29 % share) or USA (15 % share). What will therefore increase the
use of RES overwhelmingly compared to the rest of the world, with all the efforts
that result in economic terms? The EU wants to assume the global leadership be-
yond the costs to bear, or is there a strategic plan of convenience in terms of cost/
benefit? This is the crucial question that we will face in the next few chapters of
the topic.