RES Scenario in the European Union - The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe - page 56

traditional use of biomass with other forms of energy production with lower envi-
ronmental impact.
Although the WEO-2014 focuses in particular on the description of the new
policies scenario to outline the future of RES, highlighting, for example, the need
for a cumulative investment of US$ 7800 billion in the period to 2040 (IEA 2014b ),
it addresses the specific problems, such as the integration of intermittent RES sys-
tems, in particular electrical, the implications for the development of RES markets,
and the cost competitiveness of RES compared to fossil fuels, taking in the view
450 scenario a completely different scale. In fact, for the two main intermittent
RES, wind and solar, even in the case of new policies scenario it is expected that the
installed capacity by 2040 to quadruple in the case of wind farms increases seven
times in the case of solar panels, reaching a share of global electricity generation of
6 % for wind power and 3 % for solar PV. This rapid growth is expected to be local-
ized mainly in the emerging global economies, India and China, although the EU,
the USA, and Japan should continue to play an important role. In the face of signifi-
cant developments identified by the new policies scenario, the IEA ( 2014a ) high-
lights the significant implications in terms of adaptation, new design and invest-
ment in energy networks for the exploitation of intermittent sources and in terms of
the need for traditional backup capacity, or flexible systems for dispatching energy
to cope with the demand for energy that might not be covered by RES.
In the case of 450 scenario, these elements should be addressed in the light of a
portion of the RES electricity generation in 2040 that could reach 51 % of the total,
with solar and wind power installed capacity equal to almost 50 % of peak demand
global: practically a revolution that would require a radical rethinking of energy
systems.
Regarding power generation in the new policy scenario, RES accounts for about
half of the growth in global electricity generation in 2040, with nonprogrammable
sources, wind and solar PVs, which account for 35 % of the increase of RES. In
absolute terms, China is showing the greatest increase in electricity production from
RES. In some markets, the increasing share of nonprogrammable RES in the gen-
eration mix raises issues of primary importance regarding the current structure of
the electricity market and its ability to ensure an adequate level of investment and
reliability of supply in the long-term. The increase in electricity production from
RES means that the share of these sources on the mix of generation worldwide is
expected to lie above the 12 % by 2040. For its part, the EU is faced with a major
challenge: increase the share of RES, emit less polluting emission, by trying not
to raise energy prices through incentives too generous, but even reduce them in a
decided to return to being competitive in the world (Table 2.11 ) It should be em-
phasized that the EU with this additional effort compared to what has been done so
far, it could reach the remarkable share of 47 % of electricity produced from RES.
The EU has adopted the strategy climate and energy package with a goal, among
others, of raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from RES to 20 %
by 2020. The goal of RES has binding commitments for each country and penalties
in the event that are not met. The individual national targets take into account the
different starting points, the potential for RES and economic performance. Actually,