Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
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Fig. 1.3  Average CO 2 atmospheric concentration (ppm; 1975—December 2013). (Source: U.S.
Department of Commerce 2014)
• The primary energy demand will grow by about 37 %, while the demand for
electricity will grow by about 55 %.
• 60 % of the growth in demand for primary energy will be absorbed by China,
India, and the Middle East.
• There will be a modest growth in primary energy consumption in the Organ-
isation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries where
there will be a shift from oil and coal towards gas and RES.
• The highest growth in world primary energy demand will still be due to fossil
fuels that will dominate the energy mix in 2040. Their percentage contribution
will decrease from 82 to 80 %. Oil is the single largest energy source throughout
the period 2012-2040, with a share of 26 % in 2040.
• The two thirds of the expected growth in oil production will come from new
technologies: half will come from unconventional techniques in North America
(which will allow the USA to become the world's largest producer of oil) and
one-fifth extractions from extractions at great depths from floating platforms in
Brazil. The report predicts that by 2025, the US production of oil will begin to
decline and that oil world market once again will be dominated by the Middle
East.
• Gas is among the fossil fuels that will have the greatest growth and its consump-
tion will approach those of coal and oil. Its global demand should increase by
57 % between 2012 and 2040, i.e., 1.6 % per year. Today, North America is in-
creasing gas supply with a consequent reduction of its cost on the world market
is divided into separate areas (in the EU, price of gas is about three times that of
the USA). The WEO-2014 predicts that both the liquefied natural gas ships and
terminals will reduce the differences until there will be a single gas market as it
is today that of oil. The wide availability of gas in North America will reduce,
in that area, investments in nuclear power plants and to close some coal-fired
plants.
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