EU Scenarios for a Sustainable RES Strategy - The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe - page 132

• Major technological developments, i.e., technological breakthroughs, are diffi-
cult to predict. This is so because their result from sudden adjustments to ex-
ternal influences or challenges to the single firm or to the firm context. For this
reason, it is generally difficult to define the probability of realization and the
time of occurrence of innovations. When major breakthroughs change the na-
ture of technology fundamentally, this can lead to uncertain development paths
(Brezis et al. 1993 ; Landes 1966 ): “Prosperity and success are their own worst
enemies.” This implies the risk that a technology that initially seems to bring a
welfare improvement for the nation, can result in a miserable decline afterwards.
In conclusion, given economic and political uncertainties that influence RES dif-
fusion at both EU and global levels, it is necessary to be aware and continuously
monitor the process of the RES development. We believe that stability of policies is
a fundamental value to continue to spur growth and prosperity, but at the same time,
we acknowledge that this requires a continuous level of attention of policy refin-
ing and of market monitoring to avoid the risk of sudden change of course, sudden
turns, and sudden failures in the growth of our way of life.
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