The EU Legal Frameworks - The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe - page 5

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fig. 1.1 GHG emissions (%) of the EU towards an 80 % in internal reduction (100 % = 1990).
Non-CO 2 GHG. Although the majority of GHG emissions comes from CO 2 , non-CO 2 GHG such
as methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated greenhouse gases contribute significantly to climate
change. GHG greenhouse gases, EU European Union. (Source: COM 2011b , p. 112)

opportunities in the various sectors. To make the transition to a competitive low-
carbon economy, the EU must be prepared to reduce its domestic GHG by 80 % by
2050 compared to 1990 levels.
The European Commission has suggested, through an accurate analysis of mod-
eling, possible scenarios of intervention to achieve this objective. One effective
option would be to implement effective internal GHG reductions by 25 % by 2020,
40 % by 2030, and 60 % in 2040. With this approach, compared to 1990, there would
be an annual reduction of about 1 % in the first decade (until 2020) of 1.5 % in the
second decade (2020-2030), and 2 % in the last 2 decades until 2050.
The GHG emissions reduction would increase over time due to the increase in
technology with a good cost-effectiveness relation. The path that would lead to an
80 % reduction by the year 2050 is shown in Fig. 1.1 .
The projection “BAU” (business as usual) in the upper part of the graph shows
what would be the trend of the EU GHG emissions with only existing policies and
without the implementation of the road map to 2050. The road map scenario con-
sistent with a reduction of 80 % domestic shows what would be the trend of global
and sectoral GHG emissions whether additional strategies are adopted on the basis
of technological options available in 2050.
The European Commission's analysis has also explored possible ways for ac-
tion for the most important sectors, examining a number of scenarios based on dif-
ferent rates of technological innovation and fossil fuel prices. They have arisen
convergent results regarding the extent of the reductions needed in each sector in
2030 and 2050. In particular, the COM ( 2011b ) 112 states the electricity sector will