Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 5.2
Scenarios developed in the report of Enerdata's global energy forecasting department
(
2014
) and IEA (
2014a
). (Source:
our elaboration from Enerdata (
2014
) and IEA (
2014a
))
Scenario GHG emissions (%) RES share (%) Energy effi-
ciency target
Credits
a
(%) Technological
innovation
WEO
a
20
19
b
20
15
c
30
30
Enerdata
d
40
30
30
0-5-10
x
e 50 - - 5-10
f 60 5
a
new policies scenario;
b
current policies scenario;
c
450 scenario;
d
scenarios with 40 % GHG
emissions reduction;
e
scenarios with 50 % GHG emissions reduction;
f
scenarios with 60 % GHG
emissions reduction
a
Credits are available annually for the EU ETS sectors at 144 Mt CO
2
and for the non-ETS sectors
at 138 Mt CO
2
in the case of 5 %; in the case of 10 % the percentages are doubled respectively to
288 Mt CO
2
and 276 Mt CO
2
However, the controversy of public opinion toward some policies of decarbon-
ization of the EU seems to be suffering from a certain myopia. Whatever way, the
road to a low carbon economy must be undertaken by the EU.
At this point, we think it is very important to analyze costs and benefits of the
scenario proposed in COM
2014
(0015) to arrive at a definite negotiating among EU
countries.
Unfortunately, cost-benefit analyses of the scenario proposed in COM
2014
(0015) have been long overlooked; there are not that many cross-country
analyses. Currently, such studies are increasing; we propose one of the most recent
studies on this regard (Enerdata's global energy forecasting department
2014
). In
particular, there are analyzed costs and benefits for all EU member countries under
various scenarios for both type and level of goals considered in the package to
2030. These scenarios include GHG target increasingly stringent, from 40 to 60 %
compared to 1990 levels, with different levels of RES' share, access to international
credits, and so on. As a reference, we also show the macro objectives defined in the
main scenarios by the IEA (
2014a
) (Table
5.2
).
By focusing on the Enerdata's scenarios, the potential 40 % reduction of GHG
emissions requires for EU member countries as a whole an abatement cost of
€ 30 billion in 2030 compared to the reference case (it includes the EU policies up
to 2020), that is the EU 0.2 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030. It is shown
that the relationship between abatement costs and GHG targets in nonlinear. Indeed,
a 50 % reduction of GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 1990 levels would cost
to the EU € 95 billion in 2030 which is 0.5 % of GDP in 2030. It is also noted that
the power sector is the one that can mostly contribute to reducing GHG emissions.
Indeed, RES have mostly seen their greatest development and implementation in
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