EU Scenarios for a Sustainable RES Strategy - The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe - page 116

Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries implement measures to re-
duce emissions consistent with the objective of 450 scenario and invest about
US$ 100 billion to reduce emissions in non-OECD countries.
Consequently, it is important to the development of RES that should increasingly
become part of the global energy mix, especially for the power sector. The growth
rates observed so far suggest that RES are expected to grow strongly again until
2040 that is the period considered in the WEO-2014, by holding the support mea-
sures for RES in place. In the USA, the market for RES has grown strongly thanks
to RES support policies, such as subsidies that are given up to 30 % of the invest-
ment costs for projects related to RES. In Europe, there has been a rapid expansion
of RES, especially wind and solar, linked to the requirements of the EU RES direc-
tive (Directive 2009 /28/EC) and consequently of national targets. The growth of
energy demand and concerns over energy security and pollution suggest that even
in non-OECD countries the development of RES is intended to widen.
We present a brief summary of the three scenarios in order to give a quantitative
outlook of RES use by type and scenario worldwide. In all three scenarios, it is
provided for an increase in the use of RES, mainly because energy policies in place
aimed at making the RES technologies competitive with fossil fuel-based technolo-
gies (Table 5.1 ).
We notice the 450 scenario envisages a share of RES in the total demand for
primary energy sources of 30 % in 2040, compared to 19 % of new policies sce-
nario, doubling the current share of 13 % in the current policies scenario. However,
this perspective is possible not only with an increase in “modern RES,” including
hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, marine, and bioenergy, but also through the
gradual replacement of the traditional use of biomass with other forms of energy
production with lower environmental impact especially in developing countries.
In the new policies scenario, the future of RES is outlined in the light of spe-
cific issues such as the integration of intermittent RES in particular in the electri-
cal systems, the implications for the markets of the development of RES and cost
competitiveness of RES compared to fossil fuels. The new policies scenario is quite
similar in the current policies scenario 2020 in terms of share of RES in electricity
generation (26 % of the new policies scenario versus 25 % of the current policies
scenario), while the new policies scenario becomes more effective in 2040 (33 % of
the new policies scenario versus 25 % of the current policies scenario). Given the
similarity of the two scenarios, we skip the discussion of the current policies sce-
nario which is more fainthearted with respect to the new policies scenario in terms
of RES development to 2040.
On the contrary, the 450 scenario's perspective takes a completely different
scale. Although it is difficult to assess the plausibility of the 450 scenario, we deem
it is difficult to achieve its objectives.
In fact, in the new policies scenario, RES electricity generation share should
reach the 33 % of the total electricity generation and for the two main intermittent
sources addressed, i.e., wind and solar, in the new policies scenario it is expected
that the installed capacity quadruples in the case of wind farms and increases seven
times in the case of solar panels by 2040, reaching a share of global electricity