Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
and exploited where it is most convenient: wind power where there is a lot of wind
and photovoltaic, and solar thermal where there is a lot of sun.
Finally, we critically assess the implications of our analysis, pointing out that our
analysis is mostly technical and deliberately refrains from considering some exog-
enous factors that influence the development of RES in the medium and long term.
The chapter proceeds as follows: Sect. 5.1 provides a description of RES sce-
nario according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) (
2014a
) at global and
European levels. Section 5.2 describes RES scenario of the EU energy and envi-
ronmental policies according to the 2030 framework for environmental policies.
Furthermore, we provide a cost-benefit analysis for the EU countries. Section 5.3
provides our proposal for a new policy strategy at the EU level. Section 5.4 con-
cludes the chapter.
5.2
World Energy Outlook Scenarios for RES
The global consensus on environmental policies expects in the coming years an
important deployment of RES in order to fight climate change. Energy from RES
can become the energy basis of the future and the world's energy debate has led to
outline a number of energy scenarios worldwide.
In order to provide a brief summary of the development scenarios for energy,
with particular reference to RES, we take as reference the scenarios outlined by
the IEA (
2014a
) in the World Energy Outlook-2014 (WEO-2014). It shows once
more that the pursuit of “climate” requires the development and diffusion of RES
far greater than those that current policies can ensure. In particular, there are three
different proposed scenarios for the evolution of the RES' market. First, the new
policies scenario, which is the central scenario of the WEO-2014: it incorporates
policies and measures in place relating to energy markets and those which have
been adopted until mid-2014; it also takes into account the credible commitments
that have been announced. Second, the current policies scenario, which takes into
account the energy policies in force until the middle of 2014. Therefore, it describes
a scenario in which governments do not implement policies currently under discus-
sion nor new ones are introduced. The objective of the current policies scenario is
to describe how energy markets evolve if the trends of energy demand and supply
remain unchanged. It can be seen as a kind of business-as-usual scenario since it de-
scribes the consequences of inaction and allows to assess the effectiveness of recent
implemented environmental and energy policies. Third, the 450 scenario, expects
to achieve the target to limit the rise in global atmospheric temperature by 2 °C by
2050, thanks to the reduction in the concentration of GHG at around 450 ppm. Ac-
cording to the 450 scenario, it is expected to reach a peak in the concentration of
greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere in mid-2050 to a level slightly higher than
450 ppm, while around 2100 the concentration of GHG will stabilize at 450 ppm.
For the period up to 2020, it is assumed to undertake the actions decided in the
Cancun Agreements. After 2020, it is assumed that Organization for Economic
Search WWH ::
Custom Search