Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.2 Four scenarios that explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well-being based on different assump-
tions about sociopolitical forces of change and their interactions. Greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and 'other') are expressed as gigatons of carbon-equivalents (a gigaton is one thousand million tons). (Based
on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b.)
Greenhouse gas
Land use and
emissions to 2050
nitrogen
and predicted
transport in
Ecosystem
temperature rise
rivers
services
Global Orchestration - a globally connected
CO 2 : 20.1 GtC-eq
Slow forest
Provisioning
society focused on global trade and economic
CH 4 : 3.7 GtC-eq
decline to
services
liberalization. Assumes a reactive approach to
N 2 O: 1.1 GtC-eq
2025, 10%
improved,
ecosystem problems. Takes strong steps to
Other: 0.7 GtC-eq
more arable
regulating
reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in
land
and cultural
public goods such as infrastructure and
2050
+
2.0ºC
Increased
services
education. Economic growth is the highest of
2100
+
3.5ºC
nitrogen in
degraded
the four scenarios, while population in 2050
rivers
is lowest (8.1 billion)
Order from Strength - a regionalized and
CO 2 : 15.4 GtC-eq
Rapid forest
All ecosystem
fragmented world, concerned with security
CH 4 : 3.3 GtC-eq
decline to
services
and protection, emphasizing primarily
N 2 O: 1.1 GtC-eq
2025, 20%
heavily
regional markets, paying little attention to
Other: 0.5 GtC-eq
more arable
degraded
public goods, and taking a reactive approach
land
to ecosystem problems. Economic growth
2050
+
1.7ºC
Increased
rate is the lowest (particularly in developing
2100
+
3.3ºC
nitrogen in
countries) while population growth is the
rivers
highest of the scenarios (9.6 billion in 2050)
Adapting Mosaic - river catchment-scale
CO 2 : 13.3 GtC-eq
Slow forest
All ecosystem
ecosystems are the focus of political and
CH 4 : 3.2 GtC-eq
decline to
services
economic activity. Local institutions are
N 2 O: 0.9 GtC-eq
2025, 10%
improved
strengthened and local ecosystem
Other: 0.6 GtC-eq
more arable
management strategies are common, with a
land
strongly proactive (and learning) approach.
2050
+
1.9ºC
Increased
Economic growth is low initially but
2100
+
2.8ºC
nitrogen in
increases with time. Population in 2050 is
rivers
high (9.5 billion)
TechnoGarden - a globally connected world
CO 2 : 4.7 GtC-eq
Forest
Provisioning
relying on environmentally sound
CH 4 : 1.6 GtC-eq
increase to
and regulating
technology, using highly managed, often
N 2 O: 0.6 GtC-eq
2025, 9%
services
engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem
Other: 0.2 GtC-eq
more arable
improved,
services, and taking a proactive approach to
land
cultural
ecosystem management. Economic growth is
2050
+
1.5ºC
Decreased
services
relatively high and accelerating, while the
2100
+
1.9ºC
nitrogen in
degraded
2050 population is midrange (8.8 billion).
rivers
This is the only scenario to assume a climate
policy (stabililizing CO 2 at 550 ppm)
them in an effective dialogue? These are points to bear in mind as you move from
chapter to chapter. You can get a taste of the sociopolitical dimension of sustainabil-
ity by dipping into the fi rst section of each chapter and also in Sections 2.3.1, 4.4,
5.6, 6.4, 7.3, 7.6, 8.3, 9.8, 10.5, 10.7 and 11.4.
 
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