Interaction Between Future Transportation Technology and Future Fuel Supply - Decreasing Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Gas Emissions in Transportation - page 295

100

depletion of
mineral
oil supply

80

60

increase of CO concentration in air
2

40

decomposition time depending
on top concentration level

20

0

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

year

Fig. 18.1 Relation between oil consumption and CO 2 concentration in air

fuels. However, the introduction of new types of fuels into the market will take a
long time. According to current perceptions, the development of biogenic and
synthetic fuels will probably proceed slowly. The technology of the next decades
will permit blending traditional fuels such as diesel and gasoline with synthetic
fuels, biogenic fuels, or compressed natural gas but this single measure will only
moderately improve complex efficiency.
The technical development of all means of transportation will take place over a
number of human generations in comparison to the development of fuel produc-
tion. The combustion of fuels and the existing of combustion end products in the
atmosphere impact the environment and climate for much longer periods of time
than the life cycle of road vehicles, airplanes, and ships. So, the decomposition
time of CO 2 takes hundreds of years; see Fig. 18.1 .
The time period ''1 year'' has a different meaning in transportation and in the
resource system. A circulation of 10 years in technical development is adequate
compared to 1,000 years of transportation's effects on the environment and on
resources. An optimal organized balance between both time levels is the main task
of engineering technology, and environment, climate, and energy protection.

18.3 Summary and Recommendations: Scenarios of Future
Transportation

The time intervals in which new technologies penetrate the market, play a decisive
role in development. A new technology must be reliable, safe, and the operating
costs have to be more favorable than existing technologies in road, air, and sea
transportation, otherwise new solutions will not be accepted by consumers.
After the Second World War, futurologists already intensively searched for
scenarios to analyze the future. Even transportation was considered in the context of
quickly changing and developing cultural values to those time. Since this period in
history, petroleum products have been used in 98% of the world's transportation [ 3 ].